165
FXUS63 KEAX 030818
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
218 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS. NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.
- A BIT COOLER TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT WARM AIR RETURNS FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO FAR
NORTHWESTERN MO AS OF 08Z TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME SATURATION
INCREASING AND DEEPENING THIS MORNING TO POTENTIALLY A 5000 FT THICK
CLOUD DECK. BUT ASCENT THROUGH THIS SATURATED LAYER IS WEAK AT
BEST. GIVEN THE WEAK ASCENT AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATED
LAYER, IT SEEMS THAT AT BEST WE GET A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KS THIS MORNING. ANY CHANCES
DECREASE QUICKLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING
SHIFT TO STRONGER DESCENT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER TODAY COMPARED TO MONDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
USHERING IN COOLER AIR BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THAT COOLER
AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
AND CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL.
A WARMING TREND COMMENCES LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN US SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS
RIDGING BUILDS EAST THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK AND AS A
RESULT WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS CLIMB FROM THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ON
WEDNESDAY, TO THE MIDDLE 40S AND MIDDLE 50S ON THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES MAY PUSH FOR 60 DEGREE
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WELL. IN FACT, THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, FROM ROUGHLY SEDALIA TO
ST. JOSEPH, HAS AT LEAST 10% TO AS MUCH AS 50% CHANCE FOR
SEEING 60 DEGREE HIGHS ON FRIDAY WITH A 25- 55% CHANCE ON
SATURDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY, BUT THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK MONDAY WITH SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES FOR 60 DEGREE HIGHS TO SATURDAY. LATE IN THE
FORECAST, OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AS STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA COMMENCES AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WITH OVC HIGH CLOUDS
FCST THRU 13Z-15Z. AFT 13Z-15Z...OVC CIGS BTN 3-5KFT ARE THEN
FCST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. SOME MODELS PRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS BTN 14Z-18Z...CONF IS TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME BUT CONDS WILL BE MONITORED
FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NNE/N BTN
4-8KTS THRU THE TAF PD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
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