649
FXUS63 KEAX 040533
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH END OF WEEK
- WINDY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- DRY FORECAST NEXT 5-6 DAYS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH HAS BROUGHT CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
AMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS WILL HELP TO REINFORCE A STRONG JET STREAK OVER
THE ROCKIES, WITH STRONGER DCVA INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION
ALLOWING A STRONGER CYCLONE TO DEVELOP. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE KINEMATIC FEATURES PRESENT ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BE FAR REMOVED FROM OUR AREA. GOING INTO WEDNESDAY,
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
FOR ONE MORE DAY. SOME LIFT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TIED TO THE STRONGER JET STREAM AND H5 HEIGHT GRADIENT THAT IS
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WEST COAST. MOST
OF THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP THIS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY HERE, WHILE CENTRAL KANSAS
MAY SEE PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY. A FEW CAM RUNS ARE DEPICTING SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI BUT VERY LOW QPF.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE WEST, AND FORCE A THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WAA AT 850MB RAMPS UP AS
STRONGER ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WARMING OFF THE ROCKIES OCCURS AND
FLOWS INTO THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH STRONGER MIXING, THIS WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE 50F AT SOME POINT. WITH THE LACK OF
FORCING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. STRONG MIXING AND STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH THERE STILL IS LARGER SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS
IS STILL A BATTLE BETWEEN THE CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY
ATTEMPTING TO FORCE LOWER H5 HEIGHTS SOUTHWARD, AGAINST THE RISES
FROM THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK SUGGEST THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MORE
DOMINANT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A WARMER OUTCOME. ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
PAINTING INCREASING PROBABILITIES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE THAT WILL EVENTUALLY
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BKN TO OVC SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A FEW PEAKS OF VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CIGS SHOW POTENTIAL TO LOWER FURTHER
AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON SATURATION OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. IF LOW LAYERS SATURATE FASTER, LOWERED CIGS MAY MOVE
IN SOONER THAN FORECAST AND VICE VERSA. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACCELERATING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...PESEL
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