358
FXUS63 KEAX 040849
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
249 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED FLURRIES AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TRENDING
MUCH WARMER FOR THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S BECOMING MORE LIKELY.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
FOR THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING MOVES
OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN UNDER A LOW
STRATUS DECK. THIS DECK IS FAIRLY SHALLOW BUT VARIES AND
OCCASIONALLY HAS SOME ICE INTRODUCTION AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER
IS IT EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER END OF THE DGZ. RECENTLY HAD A
REPORT OF FLURRIES (AROUND 715Z) AND SWITCHING THE RADAR TO
VCP34 SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT RETURNS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
KC AREA. THE SHALLOW NATURE TO THE CLOUDS AND RETURNS, PREVENTS
SEEING ANYTHING FURTHER. IT SEEMS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD
SEE ISOLATED FLURRIES CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH
OCCASIONAL LOSS OF CLOUD ICE, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE AREA GIVEN THE SHALLOW CLOUD DEPTH, MARGINAL
ASCENT, LIMITED MOISTURE, AND LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER AREA OF FLURRIES AND/OR SPRINKLES MAY
AFFECT THE AREA. LIKE THE EARLIER ACTIVITY, LITTLE OR NO IMPACT
IS EXPECTED.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER TODAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED. A LARGE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO, AIDED BY A WESTERLY WINDS AND
STRONG MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A SIMILAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT
FRIDAY WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND WESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW, AT LEAST EARLIER IN THE DAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY, WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PART OF SATURDAY. THAT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN
5-10 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EARLY TUESDAY A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE ROCKIES, WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL UPPER JET, AND BRING
THE AREA A CHANCE FOR RAIN. PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW STILL,
BETWEEN 15-30%, AS THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK, BEYOND THE TIME
FRAME OF THIS FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BKN TO OVC SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. A FEW PEAKS OF VFR CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED, BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CIGS SHOW POTENTIAL TO LOWER FURTHER
AFTER SUNSET WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON SATURATION OF THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. IF LOW LAYERS SATURATE FASTER, LOWERED CIGS MAY MOVE
IN SOONER THAN FORECAST AND VICE VERSA. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHWESTERLY GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ACCELERATING
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...PESEL
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