664
FXUS63 KEAX 042352
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
552 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING UP OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN (15-30%) MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE REMAINING SMALL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
DROP OFF GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE DRIES
OUT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WARM COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS CLEARING, ENHANCED DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF GOING
INTO THE EVENING. FRIDAY TELLS A SIMILAR STORY OF SOME LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PROMPTING WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL
COOL DOWN QUICK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE DAY.
THIS BRIEF COOLING PERIOD WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION GOING INTO SATURDAY COINCIDENT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARMING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, OUR POPS ARE LINGERING AROUND
15-30% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST POPS AROUND
TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT QPF LIES AROUND A QUARTER INCH FOR THIS
RAINFALL, BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE GFS SIMULATE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS SUGGESTED BY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF. HOWEVER, RELATIVE TO SOME
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS, THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIKE THE
LREF MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES (15-30%) OF 6-HOURLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND, FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO NARROW DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT, ESPECIALLY RELEVANT TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
BORDERLINE VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CIGS CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN LOW VFR AND HIGH MVFR
THRESHOLDS. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SETTLE LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SLIGHT VIS IMPACTS CONTINUE ACROSS SOME FIELDS, BUT THE LOW
STRATUS DOES LOOK TO CURTAIL ANY SIGNIFICANT BR/FG.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOMING SW AFTER
SUNRISE THEN SHIFTING TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH IN FRONT OF AN BEHIND THE
FRONT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...PESEL
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