416
FXUS63 KEAX 050458
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1058 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING UP OVER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
- SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN (15-30%) MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 436 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE REMAINING SMALL CHANCES FOR FLURRIES/FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL
DROP OFF GOING INTO THE EVENING AS THE VERTICAL PROFILE DRIES
OUT AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WARM COINCIDENT WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH THIS CLEARING, ENHANCED DIURNAL MIXING WILL PROMOTE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE TAPERING OFF GOING
INTO THE EVENING. FRIDAY TELLS A SIMILAR STORY OF SOME LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PROMPTING WARMER TEMPERATURES, BUT WILL
COOL DOWN QUICK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT BY LATE DAY.
THIS BRIEF COOLING PERIOD WILL BE REINFORCED BY A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION GOING INTO SATURDAY COINCIDENT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEFORE WARMING AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BY MONDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE ROCKIES WILL BRING
OUR NEXT CHANCE OF APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, OUR POPS ARE LINGERING AROUND
15-30% FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE GREATEST POPS AROUND
TUESDAY EVENING. CURRENT QPF LIES AROUND A QUARTER INCH FOR THIS
RAINFALL, BUT SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE GFS SIMULATE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH THAN IS SUGGESTED BY OTHER
DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE ECMWF. HOWEVER, RELATIVE TO SOME
PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS, THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION HAS
SHIFTED NORTHWARD. ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIKE THE
LREF MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES (15-30%) OF 6-HOURLY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN. WITH THESE
THINGS IN MIND, FUTURE MODEL RUNS WILL BE NEEDED TO NARROW DOWN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT, ESPECIALLY RELEVANT TO
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE OVERNIGHT. A BKN TO OVC
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
OPENING UP AFTER DAYBREAK AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS START LIGHT THEN SHIFT OUT OF THE SW BEFORE DAYBREAK. SOME
BR/FG VIS IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT STJ; HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS MAY
LIMIT COOLING AND BR/FG DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ACCELERATE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS PIVOTING TO NW AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DISSIPATE AND SKIES CLEAR AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...PESEL
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