164
FXUS63 KEAX 061140
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.
- EVEN COOLER TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S (POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 70S) LIKELY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS (RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST)
WITH BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DESCENDED OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THIS EARLY MORNING, WHICH HAS PUSHED A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 3 AM, AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6
AM AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING BY
MID AFTERNOON AND WINDS RELAXING ENTIRELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MO TO THE LOWER 50S TOWARD THE KC METRO (MID 50S STILL LIKELY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KC METRO). AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN BY LATE TONIGHT, NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA, ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND INTENSIFIES INTO MONDAY AS A
PREVIOUSLY MOSTLY STATIONARY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO NW MEXICO, YIELDING HIGHER AMPLIFIED RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MONDAY MAX TS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS (NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAXT AT MCI IS
64 AND 69 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY).
MODELS DIVERGE ON TUESDAY, AS THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FROPA, AND DEVELOPS RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY MAXT AT MCI, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 55 AND 66
DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST SHOWS CHANCE POPS
(30 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR TUESDAY, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL REMAINS BELOW 0.25".
WHILE SOME DECENT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL SUITE FOR TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HANG AROUND, AS WELL, WITH A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH STJ SHORTLY AFTER 11Z, AND SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE KC METRO TERMINALS BY AROUND 12Z. WINDS ARE
TURNING NORTH NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS OR SO WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER BY AROUND 14Z/15Z THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO PERHAPS EVEN 30 KNOTS. GUSTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOMING LIGHT (10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH
NO GUSTS) BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW
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