866
FXUS63 KEAX 061714
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH THIS
MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON.
- EVEN COOLER TOMORROW, BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S (POTENTIALLY SOME LOWER 70S) LIKELY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS (RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST)
WITH BROAD LONGWAVE MID/UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS DESCENDED OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND
INTO MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN THIS EARLY MORNING, WHICH HAS PUSHED A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AS OF 3 AM, AND WILL
CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
MOVING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6
AM AND 9 AM THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS AS STRONG AS 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SLACKENING BY
MID AFTERNOON AND WINDS RELAXING ENTIRELY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE COOLER THAN THOSE OF YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MO TO THE LOWER 50S TOWARD THE KC METRO (MID 50S STILL LIKELY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE KC METRO). AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN BY LATE TONIGHT, NEARLY CALM WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO TODAY, BUT SHOULD
STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY, MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO
NUDGE ITS WAY EASTWARD INTO OUR CWA, ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS SOME MODEST MOISTURE RECOVERY. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND INTENSIFIES INTO MONDAY AS A
PREVIOUSLY MOSTLY STATIONARY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO NW MEXICO, YIELDING HIGHER AMPLIFIED RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MONDAY MAX TS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS (NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAXT AT MCI IS
64 AND 69 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY).
MODELS DIVERGE ON TUESDAY, AS THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE THE ECMWF
HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FROPA, AND DEVELOPS RAIN
ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING PRIOR TO
FROPA. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR TUESDAY MAXT AT MCI, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 55 AND 66
DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST SHOWS CHANCE POPS
(30 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR TUESDAY, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL REMAINS BELOW 0.25".
WHILE SOME DECENT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL SUITE FOR TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HANG AROUND, AS WELL, WITH A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KTS PERSISTING UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS PRESENT IN NORTHEASTERN MO, BUT
NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
CALMING OVERNIGHT, BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY INTO TOMORROW.
ANTICIPATING THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND THE
END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...SPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page