104
FXUS63 KEAX 132350
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH THE GREATEST RAINFALL
>= 1 INCH SOUTH OF I-70
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ABOVE SEASONALLY NORMAL
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK (30-40%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT, TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY CALM, NOT
EXPECTING HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DESPITE LOW RH AND
AMPLE SUNSHINE. AS THE RIDGE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OFF THE ROCKIES WILL TRAVERSE
TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. LOW LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SPREADING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. PRONOUNCED MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE GULF WILL HELP PWAT VALUES RISE INTO .5-1 INCH FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, WITH THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL ANTICIPATED ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI (QPF >= 1 INCH). RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS, THE AREA OF GREATEST RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED SOUTHERLY.
HOWEVER, WITH THAT BROAD AREA OF ASCENT DUE TO LOW LEVEL WAA
AND HIGH MOISTURE RETURNS, CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE MOST INTENSE PART
OF THE RAINFALL WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW
LEVEL VORT MAX DRAPES ACROSS MISSOURI, BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST OVER AR/LA/TX, IN ASSOCIATION WITH
DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE NORTH AT THE LOW LEVELS. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL COOL DOWN, BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR (MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND
40-45 DEGF, WHILE WE CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S THAT DAY).
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS. GOING INTO MONDAY, STRONG WAA
AT THE LOW LEVELS WILL ASSIST WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO HIGH 60S, WITH A PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE
CAUSING OUR TEMPERATURES TUESDAY TO RISE INTO THE HIGH 60S AND
LOW 70S. AMPLIFIED RIDGING IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABNORMALLY HIGH GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, BEFORE OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BY THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT OFF THE ROCKIES,
GIVING US BROAD CHANCES (30-40%) OF RAIN WITH OUR RESIDENCY IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
OUR AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR CONDITIONS. IFR
CEILINGS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PREVAILING
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE E/SE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...MACKO
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