005
FXUS63 KEAX 141119
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
519 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...HEAVIEST RAIN
FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COME THURSDAY (20-40%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS NOSING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING
FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
BE PERSISTENT TODAY NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN WILL THEN COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. PWATS IN THE 1.00"-
1.20" RANGE IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-FEBRUARY CONSEQUENTLY,
HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER FORECAST TO PICK UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY OFF FROM
AROUND AN INCH TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY. SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST PROVIDING WEAK
MIXING HOWEVER, HEIGHT RISE WILL STILL AID IN HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ALLOW WAA TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES
TO THE EASTERN ROCKIES DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WAA TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL FORCE A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION (20-40%) ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT INTO HE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE
AREA. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIMITED, AND THE 00Z RUN OF GFS
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOWEVER RETURN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS EARLIER IN THE
DAY TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE TAF SITES TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WITH
LGT RAIN AND FOG REDUCING VIS TO 4SM-5SM. AFT 14Z-15Z CIGS ARE
FCST TO BECOME IFR WITH LGT AND RAIN FOG CONTG TO REDUCE VIS TO
4SM-5SM. RAIN IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END BTN 22Z-23Z HOWEVER,
IFR CIGS AND LGT FOG REDUCING VIS TO 4SM-5SM ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS TO BEGIN THE
TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 10KTS. BY 2Z-23Z WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NNE/NE REMAINING AROUND 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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