880
FXUS63 KEAX 141735
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...HEAVIEST RAIN
FORECAST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COME THURSDAY (20-40%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM
THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. OUT AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ IS NOSING INTO THE AREA PROVIDING
FOR GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
BE PERSISTENT TODAY NOSING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE RAIN
CHANCES AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. RAIN WILL THEN COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA. PWATS IN THE 1.00"-
1.20" RANGE IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-FEBRUARY CONSEQUENTLY,
HEALTHY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER FORECAST TO PICK UP 1 TO 2 INCHES. NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY OFF FROM
AROUND AN INCH TO JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
TODAY. SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. IN ITS WAKE, BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OVER THE FORECAST PROVIDING WEAK
MIXING HOWEVER, HEIGHT RISE WILL STILL AID IN HIGHS RISING INTO
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST ALLOW WAA TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS SOME 20 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES
TO THE EASTERN ROCKIES DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE WAA TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING
HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL FORCE A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND IT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION (20-40%) ARRIVES THURSDAY AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT INTO HE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING A COLD FRONT THOUGH THE
AREA. MOISTURE AT THIS TIME LOOKS LIMITED, AND THE 00Z RUN OF GFS
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION SO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD HOWEVER RETURN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST, WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS EARLIER IN THE
DAY TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
PRESENTLY SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH AN
ONGOING RAIN SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE AREA. LOW CEILINGS UPSTREAM
INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
WOBBLING BETWEEN CATEGORIES AS A RESULT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
ADJUSTING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. ADDITIONALLY, NOTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER FURTHER SOUTH OF TERMINALS, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING THOSE CONDITIONS TO REACH TERMINALS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW,
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP IN MENTIONS OF BR WITH VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN P6SM TO ALLUDE TO THIS POTENTIAL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...SPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page