329
FXUS63 KEAX 142140
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
340 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN TO END THROUGH THE EVENING TONIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG TOMORROW MORNING
- TEMPERATURES WARM TOMORROW, CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK (10-20%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TOWARDS
THE EAST, WITH RESIDUAL SHOWERS ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE KS/MO STATELINE IN KANSAS CITY. AS WE GO INTO THE
EVENING, OUR CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL GO DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS, LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BEHIND IT. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE RAINFALL TODAY, CLEARING SKIES,
AND CALMING WINDS FOSTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER,
WITH THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AND COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSER, MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS LIMITED.
TOMORROW WILL BEGIN AN OVERALL WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THE EXACT MAGNITUDE OF TEMPERATURE
INCREASE TOMORROW REMAINS SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN, AS THERE IS SOME
SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS FOR OVERALL TEMPERATURE.
REFERENCING THE HREF, THE SPREAD OF 75TH-25TH PERCENTILE 2M
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW IS ~4-6 DEGF, WITH SOME BLENDS OF GUIDANCE
EITHER RUNNING WARMER OR COLDER THAN A SINGLE DETERMINISTIC
VALUE BY A FEW DEGREES. THIS COULD BE IN PART DUE TO DIFFERENCES
OF FORECASTED SKY COVER PROVIDING MORE/LESS INSOLATION, OR THE
STRENGTH OF INCOMING COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT PAIRED WITH MIXING
DURING THE DAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE WITH FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
FOR TOMORROW TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE
PERIOD, ENHANCING THE TRANSPORT OF WARM AIR INTO THE REGION
WHICH WILL ASSIST IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL STARTING MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OFF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL SERVE TO ENHANCE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW BY TUESDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES UP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH
CONTINUED WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PROGS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING LATE NEXT WEEK THURSDAY
HAVE DECREASED THROUGH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, WITH ANY
APPRECIABLE FORCING FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING REMAINING NORTH
OF OUR AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. AS THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO EVOLVE, SPECIFIC DETAILS
REGARDING THE PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME MORE EVIDENT, SO THE SHIFT OF PROBABILITIES THROUGH THE
FORECAST TIME PERIOD WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO HAPPEN.
OTHERWISE, STILL ANTICIPATING A DROP IN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONALLY NORMAL WITH THE GRADUAL INTRODUCTION OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
PRESENTLY SEEING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH AN
ONGOING RAIN SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE AREA. LOW CEILINGS UPSTREAM
INCREASE CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EVENT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
WOBBLING BETWEEN CATEGORIES AS A RESULT OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
ADJUSTING VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS. ADDITIONALLY, NOTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER FURTHER SOUTH OF TERMINALS, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING THOSE CONDITIONS TO REACH TERMINALS WITHIN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN
CLEARING OUT AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING
AND WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH BY TOMORROW MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWERED VISIBILITIES IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW,
HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP IN MENTIONS OF BR WITH VISIBILITIES LESS
THAN P6SM TO ALLUDE TO THIS POTENTIAL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG
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