835
FXUS63 KEAX 150828
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
228 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST
KANSAS
- TEMPERATURES WARM TOMORROW, CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT (15-20%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRATUS IS COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN MISSOURI AND EXTREME NORTHEAST
KANSAS. IT IS HERE WHERE THE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THAT FOG HAS
DEVELOPED. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE DENSE THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS AND AS SUCH AS DENSE
FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY
LATE MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS IN RESPONSE
TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL AID
IN HIGHS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DESPITE WEAK MIXING.
BY MONDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND WAA
WILL GET UNDERWAY. IN ADDITION, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE AREA WHICH WILL AID IN DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70. TUESDAY, AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST TROUGHT, NOW IN THE FORM OF A
MUCH WEAKER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH STRONG WAA DRIVING HIGHS TO NEAR RECORD
LEVELS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND
MOIST FUELS WILL KEEP CONCERNS WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FORCING A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE MEAGER HOWEVER, STRONG FORCING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS (15-20% CHANCE). BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY, STRONG DOWNSLOPING WESTERN FLOW IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL
AGAIN PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE (20-25 DEGREES) NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THURSDAY
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FORCING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE LACKING BUT THE CHANCE (15-30%) FOR A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MISSOURI WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S BUT WILL RANGE TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. CONTINUED CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WILL RETURN HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
CEILINGS HAVE RISEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ALLOWING ALL TAF
SITES TO REACH MVFR CONDITIONS. SKY COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW A
PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MO AND
NORTHEASTERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT KSTJ LIKELY RESULTING IN VLIFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE FOG IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FG AT KMCI AND KMKC AT THIS POINT.
KIXD SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FOG IMPACTS. ONCE THE FOG CONCERNS
DISSIPATE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>006-
011>015-020.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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