587
FXUS63 KEAX 152314
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
514 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK
- ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING (30-40%) AND
FRIDAY EVENING (20-30%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVERHEAD AS CLEAR SKIES
AND SUNSHINE WILL SEE US THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE WEST, BEFORE
BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES. TOMORROW, MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST, WITH ENHANCED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTRIBUTING TO GREATER WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSEQUENT TEMPERATURE INCREASES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTIER WINDS GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON THROUGH GREATER
MIXING WITH THE WARM, DRY AIR ADVECTION AND SOME DIURNAL
HEATING. BY TUESDAY, THE CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME WITH
GREATER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING OUR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
INTO THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD CREEP CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY, BUT
PRESENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE HIGHEST PERCENTILE FOR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WOULD STILL BE A HANDFUL OF DEGREES LOWER
THAN CURRENT RECORDS. HOWEVER, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR, SO IT IS STILL NOTEWORTHY
THAT WE'RE EVEN HITTING THE 70S IN FEBRUARY TO BEGIN WITH. WITH
THESE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES, PAIRED WITH STRONGER
WINDS/WIND GUSTS AND DRY AIR, THERE IS CONCERN FOR ENHANCED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RH VALUES
REMAINING WITHIN THE RANGE OF 40-50% AND RECENT RAINFALL, THESE
CONDITIONS DO NOT RISE INTO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
TUESDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE CAUSE FOR OUR NEXT CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS FAR ENOUGH TO THE
NORTH THAT ANY PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION DOESN'T REMAIN
HIGH, OR HAVE MUCH RESIDENCY OVER OUR AREA GOING INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS TREND REMAINS CONSISTENT TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD. THERE ARE LOW INDICATIONS OF THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM,
WITH GREATER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASED TEMPERATURE
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITHIN THE PRECIPITATION BAND. WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT POTENTIAL
TO HONE IN ON GREATER DETAILS THAT WOULD AID IN PLACING GREATER
PROBABILITIES WITH THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST.
AFTER THIS PERIOD, EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO MORE
SEASONALLY AVERAGE AS AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THURSDAY EVENING WILL
INVIGORATE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI, WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING ON SATURDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION
(20-30%). HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, DETERMINISTIC
MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION, SO NOT
PUTTING MUCH STOCK INTO THOSE SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT. ELSE,
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO FALL WITH SUBSEQUENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THESE PASSING SHORTWAVES, COOLING TEMPERATURES
BACK TO SEASONALLY NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL FOUR
TERMINALS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW WHILE
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER THE REGION.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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