913
FXUS63 KEAX 160821
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING (20-40%) AND
THURSDAY (15-30%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IS SLIDING EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IN ITS WAKE, WAA IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS, COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS WEAKENING AS IT DOES. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA INCREASING WAA AND DRIVING HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (20-
25 DEGREES) AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH WILL
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALTHOUGH ELEVATED RH VALUES
AND WET FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP CONDITIONS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FORCING A PACIFIC
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL THIS FRONT WILL BE LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCT SOME LIGHT WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE). BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MIGHT DRIER
CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
15 TO 30% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 MPH. THIS WOULD KEEP CONDITIONS AGAIN FROM REACHING CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THURSDAY, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
AGAIN, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER, FORCING WILL BE STRONGER
WHICH WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES (15-30%)
ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS NORTHWEST MO
AND NORTHEAST KS WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS EARLIER IN THE DAY, TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED
IN BEHIND THIS FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 20S TO NEAR 30. THE NBM PRODUCES SOME LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LACKING
ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. IF WE DO SEE SOME FLAKES NO ACCUMULATION WOULD BE EXPECTED.
WHAT IS EXPECTED, IS A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY, THE NBM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (25-30%) HOWEVER, THE 00Z RUNS OF THE
GFS AND EC DEPICT A SURFACE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PRECIPITATION SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWA. WHETHER IT IS CLOUDS OR
WEAK MIXING, HIGHS SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO STAY NEAR NORMAL IN THE
40S TO NEAR 50. SATURDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FORCING A COLD FRONT THE FORECAST AREA. CAA WITH
MAKE FOR A COOL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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