768
FXUS63 KEAX 170534
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1134 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING (30-40%),
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY (30-50%) AND
SATURDAY (20-30%)
- TEMPERATURES COOLING TO SEASONALLY NORMAL STARTING FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
GRADUAL THINNING OF CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS ALLOWED FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S, WITH SOME
GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30-35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEGINNING TO DIE
DOWN AS WE APPROACH THE EVENING. PRESENTLY, WE ARE UNDER A
PROMINENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED BY AN ONCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENHANCING OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT GOING INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, WITH STRONGER
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENTLY STRONGER WAA,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB FOR THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS TEMPERATURE
INCREASE, AS THICKER CLOUD COVER MAY INHIBIT OUR POTENTIAL TO
MIX DOWN HIGHER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG INVERSION
ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE ADDITIONALLY STRUGGLES TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 70 DEGF, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE LIKE THE HREF
HAVING A SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN ITS
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE. HOWEVER, CONSIDERING OUR POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZIER CONDITIONS AND ENHANCED ABILITY FOR MECHANICAL MIXING
TO OCCUR, HAVE CHOSEN TO BLEND IN HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW USING THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO REFLECT THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS IN OUR WESTERN MO/EASTERN KS CWA CLOSEST TO THE HIGHEST
SURGE IN 925/850-HPA TEMPERATURES. WITH THESE BREEZY, WARM
CONDITIONS, LOOKING AT AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WITH RH GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN
40-50% AND PREVIOUS RAINFALL, THIS POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. TUESDAY EVENING HAS OUR NEXT CHANCE TO SEE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA BRINGING A COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS CONTINUED TO REMAIN DRY
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL TO
LOWER CHANCES (30-40%), WITH BETTER LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT PROVIDING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION MODE. LOOKING AT SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES
(~15%) FOR THUNDER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS COLD FRONT, BUT LOW
OVERALL INSTABILITY LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER INTENSITY
CONVECTION.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL GIVE WAY
TO AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE, HELPING TO CLEAR SKIES AND TURN WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES WITH WESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL TRANSPORT OF
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING TO DROP RH VALUES INTO
THE 20-30% RANGE. DUE TO THESE FACTORS, WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SOME WINDIER WEATHER, SEEING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL, AND
DETERMINE ITS SEVERITY AS THE EVENT GROWS CLOSER. BY THURSDAY,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI (30-50%). PRESENTLY, THERE
IS A TRANSITION OF RAIN TO SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE
WARM/COLD SECTORS OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THERE IS GREATER
DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
COINCIDENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE TREND
THROUGH THE PERIOD TO DETERMINE EXACT PRECIPITATION MODES AND
TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL DROP TO MORE SEASONALLY NORMAL WITH GREATER CAA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, AND MAINTAIN THIS TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SATURDAY, THERE IS ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR
MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. STEADY SOUTH WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. A FEW LOW
CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK. SOUTHERLY WINDS ACCELERATE
TOMORROW MORNING REMAINING GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. GUSTS
OF 25-35 KNOTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTS
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
10-15 KNOTS. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED WITH
AROUND 10-15 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FROM 02-06Z WEDNESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...PESEL
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