262
FXUS63 KEAX 171714
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 30-40 MPH.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS.
- CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT (20-40%), ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THURSDAY (20-40%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND GUSTY WINDS AND RELATED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. TODAY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY. THIS WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS ENHANCED WAA IN THE FORM OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
30-40 MPH WILL DRIVE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHILE
THESE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE
DANGER FROM REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. TONIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DRAGGING AN ATTENDANT FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT BUT FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AS SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE. BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY,
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW WILL AGAIN AID IN DRIVING HIGHS INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL YIELD RH VALUES
IN THE TEENS. HOWEVER, UNLIKE TODAY WINDS WILL NOT BE GUSTY AND ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN 10-15 MPH SO AGAIN, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE ELEVATED BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THURSDAY
ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FORCING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE MEAGER WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE HOWEVER, THE NBM DOES PRODUCE A 20-40% OF
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. HOWEVER, IT IS OF
NOTE THAT 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM PRODUCE VERY LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHAT THIS FRONT WILL DO IS USHER IN
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY HOWEVER WILL
STILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WHERE THE FRONT WILL PASS EARLIER IN
THE DAY, TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY. THE GFS PRODUCED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FEATURE ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH. THE EC IS STRONGER
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHUNTS PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CWA. CONSEQUENTLY, THE NBM IS
HOLDING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 40S. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BEHIND
THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY. WEAK MIXING WILL HOLD HIGHS IN THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY PROVIDING YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12+ HOURS IS THE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO, AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, BETWEEN 50-60KTS, AT 1500 TO
2000 FT AGL, WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW, SO LLWS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT
PROBABILITY STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHER THAN THE STRONG WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB
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