069
FXUS63 KEAX 172016
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
216 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG, GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON - THURSDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL NORTH OF HIGHWAY
136 FOR NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MO.
- WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS ~30-35% FOR AT
LEAST 0.5" OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A STORM SYSTEM IS EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW NOTED IN NORTHERN NE AND SOUTHERN SD. IN
CONTRAST, A STRONG HIGH PRESSURES AREA WAS EVIDENT NEAR THE GULF
COAST/ SOUTHWESTERN LA. THIS HAS SETUP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO, RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 20-30 MPH AND SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, A STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP, WITH POTENTIAL FOR 60+ KT
WINDS 1-2KM AGL. THIS MAY KEEP WIND GUSTS GOING AFTER SUNSET,
AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE THEM FROM THE DAYTIME GUSTS. IT'S ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES ENOUGH THAT GUSTS
DIMINISH, WHILE SUSTAINED WINDS LINGER. REGARDLESS, IT'S GOING
TO REMAIN WINDY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. IT'S JUST GOING TO DEPEND ON IF AND HOW
QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. FOR NOW, THINK THE STRONG FLOW
LEADS TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED GUSTS AFTER SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03Z
(IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES) AND 09Z (IN OUR FAR EASTERN
ZONES). WINDS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH NOTABLY
DRIER AIR STREAMING INTO THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT A PASSING SHOWER, OR EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
TO OVERCOME AND THE INSTABILITY THAT IS THERE IS ELEVATED ABOVE
A STRENGTHENING CAP/EML. THAT COULD KEEP ANYTHING FROM
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING ANYWAY.
THE DRY AIR BEHIND THAT COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 10 TO 20% RANGE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
WHILE WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS TODAY/THIS EVENING, WE
COULD STILL SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 136 IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN MO. ELEVATED TO
NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK AREA SHIFTED SOUTH OF I-70.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SATURDAY, MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR WINTRY WEATHER AND MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
THIS IS MOSTLY BEING DRIVEN BY THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES, WHERE ABOUT
TWO-THIRDS OF ITS MEMBERS PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN
CONTRAST, MOST OF THE GFS AND ABOUT HALF OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PRODUCE NO ACCUMULATING SNOW. THIS LEADS TO ROUGHLY A
30-35% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-70. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHTS AND VORTICITY SHOW A
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS CHANCE
FOR MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE DETERMINISTIC CANADIAN SHOWS A
MUCH MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF KANSAS, WHICH EXPLAINS
ITS MORE ROBUST QPF AND SNOWFALL FORECAST. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS
MORE ROBUST WAVE IS REPRESENTED IN ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WELL,
LEADING TO ITS HIGH BIAS IN THIS EVENT COMPARED TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH A TREND FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 12+ HOURS IS THE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA. FOR THIS AFTERNOON, SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTS TO BETWEEN 30-35 KTS WILL OCCUR OVER EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO, AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES. THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT, BETWEEN 50-60KTS, AT 1500 TO
2000 FT AGL, WILL DEVELOP. THIS IS NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH
THE SURFACE FLOW, SO LLWS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THESE WINDS WILL
OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND WEST BEHIND THIS FRONT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT
PROBABILITY STILL LOOKS TOO LOW TO CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME.
OTHER THAN THE STRONG WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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