274
FXUS63 KEAX 180806
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
206 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED/HIGH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY, THE GREATEST RISK AREA WILL BE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT.
- WINTRY WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A ~30-45%
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS AN INCH OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
ELEVATED/HIGH FIRE WEATHER DANGER CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM. A STRONG PACIFIC FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MUCH DRYER AIR WILL MOVE INTO AREA
WITH DEWPOINT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DEWPOINTS COUPLED WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY FLOW DRIVING HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, WILL YIELD AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE WIND WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY WINDS WILL RANGE IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. HOWEVER, ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER WITH
WESTERLY GUSTY UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH WILL PUSH CONDITIONS INTO
THE CRITICAL FIRE DANGER AND AS SUCH A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA (20-40% CHANCE) NEARER THE STRONGER FORCING HOWEVER
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CWA. BEHIND THE FRONT DEWPOINT WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MP. CONSEQUENTLY, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS MAY BE REACHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE 20-25% RANGE...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL
BRING A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 20S AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A SERIES OF
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE 01Z NBM LOOKS
TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW (30-45% CHANCE) WITH THESE FEATURES WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS. HOWEVER, THE 00Z GFS AND EC
NOW KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH THESE FEATURES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE AREA PROVIDES ENOUGH DRY AIR THAT CANNOT BE OVERCOME. IN
ADDITION, MOST MEMBERS OF THE 00Z GEFS ALSO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SNOW PRODUCED BY THE NBM FOR SATURDAY MAY BE
OVERDONE. DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SURFACE RIDGES KEEP CONDITIONS DRY BUT ALSO
PROVIDE WEAK MIXING WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. TUESDAY A UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THIS WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE AREA IN CONCERT
WITH WAA WHICH WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 40S
TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO WESTERLY AND DECREASE IN SPEED BETWEEN
06-10Z AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MIXING WILL
LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY, STRONGEST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ005>008-015>017.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT
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