966
FXUS63 KEAX 190503
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1103 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH PORTIONS OF THE REGION
UNDER A RED FLAG WARNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONT, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES (20% TO 30%) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A 525 DAM CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE TWIN
CITIES REGION WITH 60+ KNOT H5 WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, THROUGH KANSAS
AND MISSOURI, AND INTO THE EASTERN US. MEANWHILE, AN OCCLUDED
988 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA, AND IS
SLOWLY FILLING. ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE WSW CONTINUES
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MO WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTER CLOSER TO THE MINNESOTA SURFACE LOW.
THESE WINDS PAIRED TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE HAS
YIELDED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI, WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 7
PM. MEANWHILE, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS OUTSIDE
OF THE RED FLAG WARNING, AND NUMEROUS GRASS/WILDLAND FIRES HAVE
BEEN DETECTED VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT CWA WIDE BY LATER THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPERATURES
REMAIN QUITE WARM (LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS).
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATER THIS EVENING,
UNDERGOING LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 996 MB
SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER MANHATTAN KS BY 6 AM TOMORROW. THIS LOW
SHOULD ENTER INTO FAR NW MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, PUSHING THROUGH A DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT FROM
WEST TO EAST. RH SHOULD PLUNGE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS TO TWENTIES ONCE MORE, AND WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN YIELD
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
ACCORDINGLY, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 8
PM TOMORROW FROM LINN COUNTY, KS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO ADAIR
COUNTY, MO (AS OF NOW, ALL KC METRO COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR CASS
REMAINS OUT OF THE RFW). A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RETURNING TO THE TWENTIES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER
30S TO MID 40S.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/OPEN WAVE COMES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO
THE CENTRAL CONUS. PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES HAD HIGHER POPS
(UP TO 50% OR SO) ALONG WITH SNOW TOTALS UP TO AROUND AN INCH OR
SO, LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. SNOW CHANCES AND
TOTALS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SIGNIFICANTLY ON THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE, WITH ONLY AROUND A 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION. THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN GIVES MCI A 38%
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW TO MEET OR EXCEED 0.1", AND ONLY A 20%
PROBABILITY FOR SNOW TO MEET OR EXCEED 0.5". EVEN IF A LITTLE
BIT OF SNOW DOES MANAGE TO ACCUMULATE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO ABOVE FREEZING BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND
WOULD QUICKLY MELT ANY SNOW. COLD TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF MID/UPPER TROUGHING BENEATH NORTH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AS MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TIL PERHAPS VERY LATE IN THE TAF PD.
BKN-OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 13Z-15Z AFT WHICH SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FCST. AFT 03Z THERE IS A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS
(AND A LGT SHRA AT STJ) HOWEVER CONF IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF (OTHER THAN AT STJ). WINDS TO BEGIN THE
TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST BTN 5-10KTS (NE AT STJ) AND WILL
INCR AFT 13Z-15Z TO 10-15KTS. AFT 18Z-20Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES VEER WINDS TO THE WSW/W AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-30KTS. WINDS WILL CONT TO VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS OUT OF WNW/NW AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS BTN
25-30KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ017-024-
025-031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ060.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...73
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