838
FXUS63 KEAX 190902 CCA
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
202 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
CONSEQUENTLY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
MONDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES (20% TO 30%) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AS OF 06Z THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. AROUND 12Z, THE SURFACE LOW'S ATTENDANT DRYLINE/POLAR
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY DRY, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 800-450 MB
COULD LEAD TO SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. IF THERE IS AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR RACING NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID MID LEVEL FLOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER (7-8K FEET AGL).
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS
NORTHERN MO. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO
<25% ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HENCE, A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM THURSDAY, STRETCHING
FROM LINN COUNTY, KS UP TO RANDOLPH COUNTY, MO FURTHER NORTHEAST.
CASS COUNTY, MO REMAINS THE ONLY COUNTY IN THE KC METRO TO BE
INCLUDED IN THIS RED FLAG WARNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAY INTERACT WITH THIS WAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 150 KT+
JET STREAK THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS INTERACTION MAY
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER COOLS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PIVOTING
THROUGH THE REGION; HOWEVER, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR AN INCH OR
MORE OF ACCUMULATION. WIDESPREAD CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK MIXING WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS SEASONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO PRODUCE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES LOCALLY
IN ADDITION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY. THIS WILL DIVE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO
NEAR 60. WEDNESDAY ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TIL PERHAPS VERY LATE IN THE TAF PD.
BKN-OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THRU 13Z-15Z AFT WHICH SCT-
BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FCST. AFT 03Z THERE IS A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS
(AND A LGT SHRA AT STJ) HOWEVER CONF IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF (OTHER THAN AT STJ). WINDS TO BEGIN THE
TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST BTN 5-10KTS (NE AT STJ) AND WILL
INCR AFT 13Z-15Z TO 10-15KTS. AFT 18Z-20Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TAF SITES VEER WINDS TO THE WSW/W AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-30KTS. WINDS WILL CONT TO VEER TO THE NW BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS OUT OF WNW/NW AT 15-20KTS AND GUSTS BTN
25-30KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ031>033-038>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ060.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...MACKO/73/BT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page