865
FXUS63 KEAX 191741
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON,
CONSEQUENTLY, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN
ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY.
- LOW END CHANCES (20% TO 30%) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AS OF 06Z THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP
PUSH A SURFACE LOW OFF THE LEESIDE OF THE ROCKIES FURTHER EASTWARD
INTO THE CWA. AROUND 12Z, THE SURFACE LOW'S ATTENDANT DRYLINE/POLAR
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP. NEAR SURFACE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY DRY, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM 800-450 MB
COULD LEAD TO SOME WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. IF THERE IS AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE, COULD SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR RACING NORTHEAST IN THE RAPID MID LEVEL FLOW. ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH
VERY DRY AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER (7-8K FEET AGL).
SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS THE SURFACE LOW GRADUALLY PROGRESSES ACROSS
NORTHERN MO. SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES. FOLLOWING THE DRYLINE, RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO
<25% ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HENCE, A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12PM TO 8PM THURSDAY, STRETCHING
FROM LINN COUNTY, KS UP TO RANDOLPH COUNTY, MO FURTHER NORTHEAST.
CASS COUNTY, MO REMAINS THE ONLY COUNTY IN THE KC METRO TO BE
INCLUDED IN THIS RED FLAG WARNING.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
MAY INTERACT WITH THIS WAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 150 KT+
JET STREAK THAT IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS INTERACTION MAY
PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER COOLS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PIVOTING
THROUGH THE REGION; HOWEVER, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WITH GENERALLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. HREF PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR AN INCH OR
MORE OF ACCUMULATION. WIDESPREAD CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK MIXING WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS SEASONABLY COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
FORCING TO PRODUCE A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S EACH DAY WITH LOWS IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PROVIDE HEIGHT RISES LOCALLY
IN ADDITION, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND
WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY. THIS WILL DIVE HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S TO
NEAR 60. WEDNESDAY ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES WILL AID IN TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW CIGS WILL CREATE AVIATION CONCERNS TODAY
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (AROUND 10KTS)
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE
FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD (KIXD WILL BEGIN WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS), HOWEVER, WINDS AT KMCI AND KMKC MAY BE MORE VARIABLE IN
NATURE AS THE LOW PASSES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN SPEED AND BECOME MORE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW CIGS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
LIKELY RESULTING IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KSTJ BY 01Z. LOW CIGS
WILL ALSO REACH KMCI AND KMKC BETWEEN 01Z AND 02Z, HOWEVER, THE
CERTAINTY OF REACHING MVFR CONDITIONS IS MUCH LOWER, SO HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP BOTH TERMINALS VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL STAY NORTH AND EAST OF KIXD. LOW CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
SCATTER OUT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DROP OFF TOMORROW
MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ031>033-
038>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ060.
DISCUSSION...OM/BT/73
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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