555
FXUS63 KEAX 200515
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1115 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 8PM CST. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. 50-95+% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MO THIS EVENING.
- LOW END CHANCES (20% TO 30%) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A 500-HPA LONGWAVE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PATTERN.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVERHEAD
BRINGING A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG A LINE
FROM DOWNTOWN KANSAS CITY TO CHILLICOTHE TO MACON, TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25% THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS,
ALONG WITH STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS HAVE CREATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS EFFECT
THROUGH 8PM CST. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
STRUGGLING TO GET ABOVE 60F WITH FAR NORTHWESTERN MO BARELY
CRACKING 40F. AS THE LOW PROGRESSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40
MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING LEADING TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
20S AREAWIDE TONIGHT (FAR NORTHWESTERN MO MAY REACH INTO THE
TEENS).
MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AREAS IN
NORTHERN MO, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER, WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME SNOWFALL AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA, HOWEVER,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL STAY LIGHT. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A
50-95+% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (0.1") ALONG AND NORTH OF
US-36 WITH A 50-70% CHANCE OF 0.5" ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE FROM
MOUND CITY TO BETHANY TO LANCASTER. AREAS NORTH OF US-136 AND
WEST OF US-71 HAVE A 50-60% CHANCE OF SEEING 1" OF SNOW.
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TOMORROW
ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AND WINDS TO DIE DOWN A
BIT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE PATTERN TOMORROW,
BRINGING A CHANCE (25-35%) FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA
TOMORROW EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST FORCING
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA AND WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
LOOKING TO INHIBIT THE SNOW SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND,
MOST WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING. NBM PROBABILITIES
SHOW A 30-50% CHANCE OF AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-29 TO SEE
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BY SATURDAY MORNING.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH 500-HPA RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S. BY TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS, CIGS, CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD. A MOVE BACK TOWARDS VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LARGELY
EXPECTED BETWEEN AROUND 08Z AND 10Z AS THE BACK END OF THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE GUSTY
SIDE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 20S KTS BEFORE EASING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD, INCREASING CLOUD COVER (BUT VFR) MAY YIELD LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE SITES, BUT HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ONSET TIMING, WHICH MAY PUSH IT BACK
TO OR AFTER 06Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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