063
FXUS63 KEAX 201750
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1150 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
* CHANCE OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
MORNING. CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW DECREASES FURTHER EAST INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SCARCE.
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
995 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL TOWARDS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH NEAR SURFACE COLD AIR ADVECTION WANING ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY STRONG
MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS IN THE MIXED
LAYER. AS A RESULT, SHOULD SEE A DECENT TEMPERATURE RECOVERY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO LOWER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE PAST
FEW DAYS.
SHORTWAVE IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN US IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY BUILDING INTO CENTRAL US SATURDAY
MORNING. CONSISTENT SATURATION WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER LOOKS TO
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT THE FURTHER EAST THE WAVE GOES. MODELS
ALSO CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF SURFACE MOISTURE, WHICH
WILL EAT AWAY AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMLATIONS ON SATURDAY
MORNING. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS, BUT QUICKLY TAIL OFF
FARTHER EAST AND QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR AMOUNTS GREATER THAN
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS, SOMETHING THAT HAS RARELY BEEN SEEN THIS MONTH. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS NORTHERLY
FLOW REMAINS AND BECOMES REINFORCED BY A MOISTURE STARVED
CLIPPER TYPE WAVE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND TUESDAY ONWARD ON THE HEELS OF MID
HEIGHT RISES, SURGING 850MB TEMPS, AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, AND LARGELY THEIR ACCOMPANYING ENSEMBLES, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER DROPPING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
FORTUNATELY, THE CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO LACK A SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIR MASS, RESULTING IN CONTINUATION OF SEASONALLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATIONS
CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN MORE UP IN THE AIR AND ON THE
LOW END OVER THE AREA WITH STRONGEST/DEEPEST LIFT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD OF THE STATE. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES
WOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION OF THE LIQUID VARIETY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND
BEYOND AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST EXPANDS EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
FILL IN WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING. CIGS SHOULD STAY
WELL ABOVE MVFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING FAIRLY LIGHT (5-10
KTS) THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE (25-35%) OF LIGHT
SNOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, PARTICULARLY AT KMCI, KMKC, AND
KIXD), HOWEVER, SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND BENEATH A
LAYER OF DRY AIR. THE BEST CHANCES FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN 09-12Z TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AT THIS TIME, SO HAVE OPTED
FOR A PROB30 GROUP RATHER THAN PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS/BT
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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