980
FXUS63 KEAX 051759
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NW MO.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS AS OF MIDNIGHT, WITH A 50+ KNOT
H5 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OK INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. AT
THE SURFACE, THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SE MISSOURI TO
THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NW ARKANSAS AND INTO SE OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS - A FEW THAT GOT A LITTLE FEISTY EAST OF INTERSTATE 49
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 - HAVE CLEARED THE CWA TO THE EAST, WITH
A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE H5 LOW ACROSS FAR NW MISSOURI. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER, DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION, AND AS SUCH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY FOR AREAS WHERE VISIBILITY IS BY AND LARGE
QUARTER MILE OR LESS. FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING,
WITH LOW CLOUDS FINALLY THINNING BY AFTERNOON (ALTHOUGH QUITE A BIT
OF CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN). TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUING.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A 45+ KNOT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING
OVER THE REGION AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALSO USHER IN INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH DEW POINTS RISING
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. 06Z SUITE OF CAMS SUGGEST CONVECTION
INITIATION INVOF SALINA AND COTTONWOOD FALLS BY AROUND 9 PM
THURSDAY, WITH STORMS GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AND ENTERING INTO
FAR NW MO AND NORTHERN MO BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. CAMS ALSO SUGGEST A SECOND AREA OF STORMS TRAVERSING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH. THIS COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE REGION AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY.
MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO
DISTINCT IMPULSES, WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO NW
IOWA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PLACING OUR CWA WITHIN THE OPEN WARM
SECTOR (HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S WITH SSW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30+ MPH FRIDAY AFTERNOON). QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE
MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WHICH COULD GREATLY AFFECT THE
OUTLOOK FOR STORMS LATER IN THE DAY. WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PRESENT, WE MAY NOT GET ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE THE DESTABILIZATION NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS. HOWEVER,
WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY
GOING TO BE ABLE TO APPROACH IF NOT OVERTAKE THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION.
THE BROAD WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ADDS CONSIDERABLE
POTENCY AND UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST. INSTABILITY RANGES FROM
1000-2000 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL CHOICE WHICH BY ITSELF IS
ADEQUATE, BUT DOESN'T RAISE TOO MANY FLAGS. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7-8 C/KM AND HELICITY VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2 DO SUGGEST
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CONTAINING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. CAMS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE LARGER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED LATER IN THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THIS SETUP HAS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS FROM AROUND 4-9 PM FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ONE VERY LARGE AND IMPORTANT CAVEAT THAT WAS
ARTICULATED EARLIER. WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION. IF CLOUD DEBRIS INHIBITS
DAYTIME HEATING, OVERALL CHANCES FOR DISCRETE STORMS LOWERS. THAT
SAID, ANY DISCRETE FORM THAT DOES FORM CAN PRESENT ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS. THE VARIANCE IN MODELS PRESENTS A POTENTIALLY BOOM OR BUST
SCENARIO.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AS THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PROGRESS EAST NORTHEASTWARD, THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING.
STRONG FORCING PROVIDED BY THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ENCOURAGE
CONVECTION TO GROW UPSCALE RESULTING IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG/SLIGHTLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP QLCS
CHARACTERISTICS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
POSSIBLE GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ~1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE, 40-50 KNOTS
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND 35 KNOTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR. AGAIN, THE
QUESTION WILL BE WHAT KIND OF ENVIRONMENT PRECEDES THIS LINE.
FORTUNATELY THE COMPARISON IS BETWEEN A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT BY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR A MILDLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FROM MORNING CLOUD
DEBRIS. BOTH ENVIRONMENT POSE INTERESTING SCENARIOS WITH LIKELY THE
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BEING SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR A STRONGER QLCS
AS IT WOULD BE ABLE TO RETAIN SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT BE
WORKED OVER BY EVENING CONVECTION. THE FORCING OF THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY DEFEAT ANY CAP IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. THE POST DISCRETE
SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT ALSO POSES AN INTERESTING SCENARIO AS WHILE
THE CONVECTIVE VARIABLE WOULD THEORETICALLY BE WEAKER (I.E. A WEAKER
LINE), RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM DISCRETE CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY CAUSE SEGMENTS OF THE QLCS TO BEHAVE ERRATICALLY. OF COURSE,
THERE IS ALSO THE THIRD SCENARIO WHERE IT BUSTS COMPLETELY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SOLUTION. SOME FORM OF CONVECTION AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE IS LIKELY AT SOME POINT FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ON
SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, AS WELL. THE NEXT NOTABLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION COMES TUESDAY AS AN EXPANSIVE CUTOFF LOW LOOKS TO
TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN CONUS CREATING ANOTHER STRONG CONVEYOR OF WARM
AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SPC HAS PLACED AREAS IN THE EASTERN
QUADRANTS OF THIS LOW INTO A FAIRLY RARE DAY 6-7 15% SEVERE WEATHER
RISK WHICH INDICATES HEIGHTENED ATTENTION TO FORECAST DEVELOPMENTS AS
EARLY NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT
ALL FOUR TERMINALS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING, CIGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN, SO HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR -TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT EACH TERMINAL. ONCE PRINTOECIPITATION MOVES OUT, CIGS SHOULD
RETURN TO MVFR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH, GUSTING UP TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL/WILLIAMS
AVIATION...MACKO
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