369
FXUS63 KEAX 052158
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
358 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
STARTING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
MAINLY ACROSS FAR NW MO.
- HIGHER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED
STARTING FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WARM FROM DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MISSOURI. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE. A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT
WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE WITH THE RESULTANT MCS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA. GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY, THE WEAKENING REMNANTS OF STORMS FROM TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO LATCH ON TO A CONSENSUS REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THESE
DECAYING STORMS WILL MAKE IT TO THE CWA AND, IF THEY DO MANAGE TO
SURVIVE THE JOURNEY, HOW LONG THEY WILL LAST. THESE STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY TO BE IMPACTFUL ON THEIR OWN, HOWEVER, THEY CARRY GREAT
IMPLICATIONS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S SEVERE THREAT. A
LONGER DURATION MORNING PRECIPITATION EVENT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY
HINDER THE ATMOSPHERE'S ABILITY TO RECOVER FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS IN THE
WARM SECTOR CONTINUE TO BE WORRISOME, CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY OVERCOME THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE DAY IN ORDER TO PRODUCE DISCRETE
CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CAMS ALSO APPEAR
TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL PLAY OUT; SOME STILL ATTEMPT TO
INITIATE DISCRETE CELLS WHILE OTHERS DO NOT. ULTIMATELY, THE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THREAT IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ON HOW THE MORNING
PLAYS OUT TOMORROW. IF WE SEE AN EARLY END TO PRECIPITATION AND ARE
ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH LAYERED CLOUD COVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SITUATION CONTINUES
TO BE ONE THAT COULD EASILY OVER OR UNDERPERFORM DEPENDING ON THE
CIRCUMSTANCES TOMORROW MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER REGARDING A NOCTURNAL PUSH OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY OF THIS LINE
WOULD BE DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY PLAY OUT.
WIDESPREAD ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL
ALLOW FOR RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS. THIS LINE COULD HAVE
UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE, 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, OVER
800 J/KG OF DCAPE, 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM HELICITY AT ITS DISPERSAL,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED
MESOVORTICIES WITHIN THE LINE. SHOULD THERE BE DISCRETE CONVECTION
IN THE HOURS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT, THE QLCS WOULD LIKELY BE ON
THE WEAKER SIDE (BARRING ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BY SUPERCELLS
THAT THE QLCS COULD INTERACT WITH). SHOULD NO DISCRETE CONVECTION
OCCUR AHEAD OF THE LINE, THE QLCS SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A MORE
SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT OVERALL.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE AREA. COOLER
AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO A MORE SEASONABLE DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT DROPPING LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH WAA DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL RETURN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. STRONG WAA
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE
70S ON MONDAY. MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A LEAD UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
EJECTS OUT FROM A UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. AS IT DOES, A LLJ DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA
PROVIDING THE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE LLJ REMAINS
FOCUSED ON THE AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY. WITH THE AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER HOWEVER, THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE THE
BETTER FORCING RESIDES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE CLOSED LOW UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AS IT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL CONTINUE STORM CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AGAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. WITH STORMS AROUND ON WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING AT
ALL FOUR TERMINALS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING, CIGS
WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AS RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN, SO HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 FOR -TSRA FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AT EACH TERMINAL. ONCE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, CIGS SHOULD
RETURN TO MVFR WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH, GUSTING UP TO AROUND
25 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MACKO/73
AVIATION...MACKO
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