179
FXUS63 KEAX 060541
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1141 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
APPROACHING QUARTER SIZE.
- CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE H850 LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COLORADO, WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED LOW LEVEL JET IN
THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING, WITH 50 KNOTS ANALYZED ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE, A 998 MB SURFACE LOW SPINS
OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS HELPED BLOSSOM RELATIVELY ROBUST CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS BY THURSDAY EVENING, WITH THESE
STORMS MOVING ACROSS NE KANSAS INTO NW MISSOURI AT PRESENT TIME.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, WITH HAIL
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION, WITH DEW POINTS RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY 6 AM. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS
LINE SHOULD EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE KC METRO IN THE 2 TO 5 AM TIME FRAME,
WITH YET ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE
REGION BY MID TO LATE MORNING PER THE MOST RECENT HRRR RUNS. IT
WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THESE POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION IMPACT OR ALTER THE ENVIRONMENT HEADING INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE AFOREMENTIONED BROAD MID/UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS/DESERT SOUTHWEST IS
PROGGED TO SPLIT INTO TWO DISTINCT IMPULSES, WITH THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A 60+
KNOT CYCLONIC JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FROM
NEW MEXICO INTO FAR SE NEBRASKA. AT THE SURFACE, ONE SURFACE LOW
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE SD/NE/IA TRI STATE BORDER WHILE
ANOTHER MOVES INTO WEST CENTRAL KS, WITH AN ACCOMPANYING COLD
FRONT BRIDGING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS AND APPROACHING THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PLACE OUR CWA WITHIN THE OPEN WARM
SECTOR, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE THE LOW TO MID 70S, SSW
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, AND DEW POINTS
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. BY 4 PM FRIDAY, SPC HREF SB
CAPE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS AROUND 750 TO 1000 J/KG, WITH AROUND 40
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION LOOKS TO BE PRESENT DUE TO A CAP AT THE 750 TO 850 MB
LAYER, AND COULD BE HARD TO OVERCOME, ESPECIALLY WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUD COVER LIKELY REMAINING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF
STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE AND TAKE ROOT, SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MOST RECENT CAM GUIDANCE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY EXCITED ABOUT ROBUST CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ONLY SUGGESTING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW MESOVORTICES GIVEN 30 KNOTS OF 0-3
KM BULK SHEAR. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS THE LINE
PROGRESSES FURTHER EAST, WITH THE FRONT LIKELY TO COMPLETELY
EXIT THE CWA TO THE EAST BY AROUND 5 AM SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REBOUND QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S ON SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 70S ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY, AS WELL. BY TUESDAY,
A CLOSED H5 LOW CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO IS PROJECTED TO BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND EJECT OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
EXPECTING A WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH STORMS ALREADY OCCURRING AT STJ. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE ACTIVITY MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING MORE
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATER FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT UNSURE OF COVERAGE AND IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER, OR JUST GENERAL SHOWERS. BUT AS THIS MOISTURE ADVECTS
FURTHER, SHOULD SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR. MAIN COLD FRONT
STARTS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO SATURDAY. STILL LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING OF SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED. ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH. FOR NOW, HAVE
PLACED CONVECTION IN PROB30 GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES, WITH
SHOWERS PREVAILING AS THE MAIN FRONT COMES THROUGH.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...KRULL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page