423
FXUS63 KEAX 062147
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
347 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA WILL OCCUR AFTER 9PM.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH, WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING. THESE CELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS.
- STORMS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, BUT THE THREAT IS MORE CONDITIONAL.
- NEXT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
AS OF EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A BAND OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WITH STRATUS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. AN AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS TO OUR NORTH, LINKED TO
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY A COLD FRONT. IN THE
COMING HOURS, A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE EJECTED EASTWARD OUT AHEAD
OF THE LARGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. GENERALLY SPEAKING, A NARROW
BAND OF COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN
CWA BORDER HAVE BEEN THE ONLY AREAS TO SEE MUCH CLEARING OR PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE TODAY. UNSURPRISINGLY, AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN LARGELY
ENVELOPED BY CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING HAVE STRUGGLED TO
BREAK INTO THE 70S, WITH MANY LOCATIONS CENTRAL TO THE KC METRO
HOVERING AROUND THE LOW TO MID 60S SINCE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
IN SOME WAYS, HOW THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY HAS TRANSPIRED HAS
ALLEVIATED SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY HAS NOT BEEN ELIMINATED, AND
RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE AND SOUNDING DATA HAS LED TO FURTHER
QUESTIONING ABOUT THIS EVENING'S ORDER OF EVENTS. THE GREATEST AND
MOST WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREATS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A QLCS THAT MOVES
THROUGH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS TONIGHT. WHAT
HAPPENS BETWEEN NOW AND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS TRICKY, BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BETWEEN NOW AND ROUGHLY 00Z, SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE MOSTLY POP-UP-ESQUE, WITH AN EXCEPTION FOR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. ASSUMING THERE ARE NO OR VERY
LIMITED CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
ORGANIZED, DISCRETE CONVECTION INITIATING IN THE MAJORITY WARM
SECTOR. THE CAP APPEARS TO HAVE MOSTLY ERODED BY EVAPORATIVE
COOLING, AND LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA DON'T DO MUCH TO IMPRESS CURRENTLY. THE DAYTIME
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HAS LARGELY INHIBITED OUR ABILITY TO
DESTABILIZE VIA INSOLATION SO FAR, THOUGH THE OBSERVED BREAKS IN
CLOUD COVER IN NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE
ORGANIZED DISCRETE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, EVEN
IF DISCRETE CELLS FORM IN THESE AREAS, IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THEY
WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE THEIR "FULL" SEVERE POTENTIAL BEFORE GETTING
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, SHOULD DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOP
HERE, THIS WOULD BE THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST TORNADO AND HAIL
THREAT.
AT THE TIME OF WRITING, CONVECTION IS INITIATING IN PORTIONS OF WFO
TULSA'S AREA. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE HAS PICKED UP ON THIS DEVELOPMENT
AND HAS BEEN MOVING IT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A
RESURGENCE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO OUR AREA AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE INCREASES TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. SHOULD
THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVE, THESE STORMS COULD CREATE PROBLEMS
FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA, PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z. OUR SHEAR
PROFILE IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION (0-6KM
BULK SHEAR >40KT IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS), SO IF WE ARE ABLE TO
SUCCESSFULLY REBOUND FROM AM/EARLY PM CONVECTION AND DESTABILIZE VIA
WAA, WE COULD SEE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. WE ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO NOTE SOME CLEARING JUST WEST OF THE MO/KS STATE
LINE WHICH COULD ALSO SUPPORT DESTABILIZATION. WE COULD SEE ALL
HAZARD TYPES WITH THESE STORMS, BUT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EVOLVE AHEAD OF THEM, THUS
LEADING TO QUESTIONS REGARDING STORM BEHAVIOR.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING TONIGHT'S QLCS EVENT REMAINS MUCH HIGHER,
REGARDLESS OF WHAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WE EXPECT ANY
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI TO GROW UPSCALE BY
02Z-03Z, THEN MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BEFORE EXITING BY 10Z.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE GREATEST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY. MORE RECENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
THAT THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR ALIGNS SLIGHTLY MORE PERPENDICULAR TO
THE LINE WHICH MAY INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES
ALONG THE LINE. STILL, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS
THE LINE MOVES THROUGH. DESPITE TRAINING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING,
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE LINE TONIGHT SHOULD LIMIT HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A MESSY TAF PERIOD ON DECK ACROSS THE SITES GIVEN ONGOING AND
SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO HONE
IN ON WINDOWS OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE AS WELL AS SIGNALING THAT
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE TRANSIENT/TEMPORARY VIA THE USE OF
TEMPO GROUPS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
GUSTY SW WINDS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THEN SHIFT GUSTY OUT
OF THE NW, IN BOTH CASES GUSTING IN TO THE 20S KTS. SOME LOWER
30S KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE/LIKELY DAYTIME TODAY. ADDITIONAL
RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY VIA CEILINGS WITH PLETHORA OF GUIDANCE
ZEROING IN ON MVFR CEILINGS PRE AND POST FRONTAL. GIVEN THE
MESSY SITUATION, EXPECT THERE TO BE MULTIPLE AMENDMENTS THROUGH
06Z, ASIDE FROM THE ROUTINE ISSUANCE TIMES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...CURTIS
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