578
FXUS63 KEAX 080511
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS
WELL AS FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IMPACTED
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND CLOUD COVER HAVE LIMITED HIGHS TO THE MID 40S
TO NEAR 50. LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SKIRT THE AREA AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL AID IN LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S. HOWEVER, ON SUNDAY, THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH MODEST WAA DEVELOPING
IN ITS WAKE. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO START THE DAY WILL QUICKLY
BECOME QUASI-ZONAL AS SUNDAY WEARS ON PROVIDING STEEP HEIGHT RISES.
SO, DESPITE THE COOL START TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. STRONG
WAA WILL THEN CONTINUE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY DRIVING
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80 (RECORD HIGH FOR KANSAS CITY ON 3/9 IS 77 SET 2021).
ALSO, ON MONDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES ALLOWING A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SAG IN NEAR THE
MO/IA BORDER. A FEW WAA SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
PROVIDES THE BEST CHANCE FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER. TUESDAY MORNING A
CLOSED UPPER LOW TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY THIS CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL
DEVELOP INTO A OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE AREA. THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
CWA WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP. MUCAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1500-2500J/KG WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50KTS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE
CONDITIONS FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN ADDITION, WITH A
SLOW MOVING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PWATS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
BETWEEN 1.2"-1.4" FLOODING WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. TUESDAY NIGHT
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT FOR CONTINUED STORM DEVELOP WHICH
WOULD ALSO BE AIDED BY A 50-60KT NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WOULD CONTINUE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA CONTINUING SHOWER CHANCES
ON WEDNESDAY. PROVIDED THE COLD FRONT DOESN'T SAG INTO THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND CLOUD COVER DOESN'T LIMIT
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WE COULD SEE OUR FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF THE
YEAR IN KC WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT DRYING OUT CONDITIONS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND LATE DAY WAA WILL GET UNDERWAY ALLOWING
HIGHS TO RISE BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP HIGHS FURTHER RISE INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB
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