413
FXUS63 KEAX 080552
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1152 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING JUST OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
WINDS TO THE AREA BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID-30S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNRISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA, WHICH WILL INCITE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG WAA
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY
(SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOW 70S). STRONG WAA WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR RECORD
VALUES WITH THE MCI RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY AT 77F SET IN 2021. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50-60% CHANCE OF TOPPING THIS RECORD. TO THE
NORTH, A SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, LEAVING
BEHIND A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL IA, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR FUTURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY SOARING INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR (THE
RECORD OF 84F AT MCI FROM 1967 SHOULD BE SAFE).
TUESDAY ALSO BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND STORMS TO
THE AREA. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE PACIFIC
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TUESDAY
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE. MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL INITIATE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY ALLOWING 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO
BUILD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN CENTRAL IA. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 40-50 KTS BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW THE
TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL IMPACT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE
WAVE SLOWS A BIT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY VALUES WOULD BE DECREASED BEFORE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
DIMINISHED A BIT. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE BEFORE
SUNSET, THEY WILL BE AIDED BY THE NOSE A 50-60 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE SETUP LOOKS TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THUS THE SPC HAS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHICH BRINGS UP ANOTHER NOTE OF CONCERN WITH THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN. PWAT VALUES WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED (1.2"-1.4")
AND IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE TROUGH BEING POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT POSES A THREAT FOR
TRAINING STORMS AND THE RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION AND DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. HOWEVER, THESE RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA
RETURNS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CDB
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