842
FXUS63 KEAX 080950
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
450 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
...UPDATED FOR LOCAL THOUGHTS ON DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR
TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY ALONG WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A FEW LOCAL DETAILS ON THE SWODY3 ISSUANCE.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON
THE PROPAGATION OF A STRONG H5 TROUGH EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS THAT WILL PROMOTE STRONG DCVA INTO THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY,
WITH RESULTANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE
PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG
JET STREAK SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. CONVERGENCE DRASTICALLY INCREASES ALONG THE
COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. THE OVERALL KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT CAN BE
SUPPORTIVE OF TAKING UPDRAFTS AND TURNING THEM SEVERE, WITH PLENTY
OF LIFT AND FORCING. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS EVENT FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, IS THE QUESTION OF WHERE WILL THE WARM FRONT POSITION
ITSELF EARLY TUESDAY AND HOW THE OVERALL WARM SECTOR EVOLVES. STRONG
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, FAVORABLE FOR DENSE CLOUD
COVER THAT COULD LIMIT INSOLATION, RELYING HEAVILY A STRONG THETA-E
TRANSPORT FOR INSTABILITY. WHAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IS THE
STRENGTH OF A POTENTIAL EML AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS, AND ITS
IMPLICATIONS FOR CAPPING ON TUESDAY AND MODERATING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. IF WE END UP IN A SETUP WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
LAPSE RATES MAY BE UNDERWHELMING, RESULTING IN MEAGER UPDRAFTS
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. IF A
STRONGER UPDRAFT IS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH ANY CAP OR SOME FEATURE
PROVIDES ROBUST LAPSE RATES, KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR A SUPERCELL STORM
MODE IS POSSIBLE, PRESENTING ALL HAZARD TYPES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY MAY HAVE TO HOLD OFF THOUGH UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING ON
TUESDAY ALONG THE MAIN COLD FRONT, AND ALSO WAIT FOR THE STRONGER
DCVA AND BROADSCALE LIFT TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING, WHICH AT THAT
TIME MAY LEAD MORE TO AN MCS. THE LEVEL 3 ENHANCED RISK IN THE SPC
SWODY3 LOOK FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI APPEARS TO THE FAVORED CORRIDOR BASED ON
CURRENT GUIDANCE FOR DIURNAL HEATING TO PROVIDE THE BEST LAPSE RATES
IN THIS SETUP, WITH THE LEVEL 2 SLIGHT RISK HAVING PLENTY OF FORCING
AND MOISTURE, BUT MAY NOT BE AS THERMODYNAMICALLY ROBUST. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, PROBABILITIES FOR PWATS
INCREASING BEYOND 1.50 INCHES ON TUESDAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING UPWARD.
AND WITH STRONG FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING, IS PROVIDING A SETUP
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. DEPENDING ON HOW THE 850-300MB MEAN WIND VECTOR
ALIGNS, STORM TRAINING COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
ISSUES ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING JUST OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
SITUATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
WINDS TO THE AREA BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID-30S BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNRISE, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA, WHICH WILL INCITE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG WAA
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY
(SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN PUSH INTO THE LOW 70S). STRONG WAA WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR RECORD
VALUES WITH THE MCI RECORD HIGH FOR MONDAY AT 77F SET IN 2021. NBM
PROBABILITIES SHOW A 50-60% CHANCE OF TOPPING THIS RECORD. TO THE
NORTH, A SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, LEAVING
BEHIND A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL IA, POTENTIALLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE AREA, WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR FUTURE PATTERN EVOLUTION.
HOWEVER, THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHS
POTENTIALLY SOARING INTO THE 80S FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR (THE
RECORD OF 84F AT MCI FROM 1967 SHOULD BE SAFE).
TUESDAY ALSO BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND STORMS TO
THE AREA. THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN THE PACIFIC
OFF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TUESDAY
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE. MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL INITIATE MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY ALLOWING 1500-2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE TO
BUILD ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN CENTRAL IA. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL CLIMB TO 40-50 KTS BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS HOW THE
TIMING OF THE WAVE WILL IMPACT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. IF THE
WAVE SLOWS A BIT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY VALUES WOULD BE DECREASED BEFORE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR INCREASES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
DIMINISHED A BIT. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE BEFORE
SUNSET, THEY WILL BE AIDED BY THE NOSE A 50-60 KT NOCTURNAL LLJ
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE SETUP LOOKS TO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, THUS THE SPC HAS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR TUESDAY.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SEVERE STORMS ARE ABLE TO OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, WHICH BRINGS UP ANOTHER NOTE OF CONCERN WITH THIS
PARTICULAR PATTERN. PWAT VALUES WILL BE QUITE ELEVATED (1.2"-1.4")
AND IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH
THE TROUGH BEING POSITIVELY TILTED AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE STATIONARY/SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT POSES A THREAT FOR
TRAINING STORMS AND THE RISK OF FLOODING TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA,
BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION AND DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S. HOWEVER, THESE RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST LONG AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WAA
RETURNS BY THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 60S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH CLEAR TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 25KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET AND BACK SLIGHTLY TO SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...KRULL
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CDB
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