045
FXUS63 KEAX 082255
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
555 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH TUESDAY
- HIGH TEMP RECORDS MOST AT RISK ON MONDAY
* SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS RETURNS TO
THE AREA TUESDAY PM AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
* COOLER AND QUIET WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
CURRENTLY AND IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM, NOT MUCH TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT WITH REGARDS TO SENSIBLE WEATHER. AFTER THE NOTABLY
COOLER/CHILLY DAY YESTERDAY, WARMER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FILLED BACK
IN TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ALLOWING SW SURFACE FLOW TO RETURN. THIS HAS PUSHED TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND REMAIN ANTICIPATED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IF NOT A
SPOT OR TWO (MAINLY WEST) TOUCHING 70.
AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE EASTERN CONUS, NOVEL HEIGHT
RISES AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL SETTLE IN TO START THE WEEK. WITH SW
SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING AS WELL, ALL WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO KEEP
PUSHING TEMPERATURES WARMER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH MONDAY ACROSS GUIDANCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S ACROSS
THE CWA, AND IS REFLECTED IN NARROW 25TH/75TH NBM SPREADS MAINLY 3
DEG OR LESS. THIS GENERALLY PASSES THE SNIFF TEST TOO PERUSING MODEL
SOUNDINGS AS THEY MIX OUT A MAJORITY OF THE EML AND EVEN IF DEEPER
MIXING IS ACHIEVED, THE POTENTIAL IS ONLY FOR A COUPLE MORE DEGREES
F, IE THE UNMIXED EML IS NOT STEEP/OF LARGE MAGNITUDE. MUCH OF THE
SAME TUESDAY, BUT WITH A BIT STRONGER EML. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE
70S MONDAY AND 70S TO LOW 80S TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
MONDAY TOO YIELDS THE BEST CHANCE AT BREAKING ANY TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WITH RELATIVELY LOW HANGING FRUIT IN KANSAS CITY GIVEN AN
EXISTING RECORD OF 77 DEG (2021) AND A CURRENT FORECAST OF 76 DEG.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMP UP
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A PAIR OF WESTERN CONUS FEATURES
MOVING OUT OF THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL
PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY LIFTING TO THE ENE,
FILLING, AND MERGING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
AS THIS PERTAINS TO THE IMMEDIATE AREA, LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE(S) WITH REGARDS TO THE EXPECTATION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OF
COURSE THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS, AND THERE REMAINS OF A
MIXTURE OF HIGH AND LOWER CONFIDENCE DETAILS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
DETAILS INCLUDE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, SUPPORTIVE
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AT LEAST MODERATE OVERALL INSTABILITY
(>1500 J/KG SBCAPE), SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (>40KTS), AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR/ALONG THE COLD FRONT. LESSER
CONFIDENCE/STILL UNCERTAIN DETAILS INCLUDE JET STREAK
POSITION/STRENGTH, DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT POSITION/TIMING,
WARM SECTOR CLOUD COVER, AND WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE CURRENTLY TENDS TO KEEP THE OPEN WARM SECTOR
ON THE QUIETER SIDE WITH DEPICTIONS OF A MODERATE CAP AND MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SHOULD POCKETS OF SUNSHINE PREVAIL AND/OR
ENCROACHING JET STREAK POSITION BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN
POSITION AND TIMING, IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OPEN WARM SECTOR
STORMS ARE ACHIEVED. AND TOO WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS.
SHOULD THE OPEN WARM SECTOR REMAIN LARGELY QUIET, EYES TURN
TOWARD THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NW, WHICH IS LARGELY
PROGGED FOR THE LATTER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. INITIAL STORMS LIKELY RETAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR
HAIL/WIND THREATS BEFORE MORE NOCTURNAL CONDITIONS EASE SOME OF
THOSE THREATS. DO NOT SEE A SUBSTANTIAL QLCS TOR THREAT WITH
UNSUPPORTIVE 0-3KM SHEAR ORIENTATIONS AT THIS TIME. INSTEAD,
0-3KM AND 0-6KM SHEAR ORIENTATIONS MORE PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT LEND TO TRAINING STORM POTENTIAL AND IS POTENTIALLY
BOLSTERED BY MESSY SURFACE LOW EVOLUTIONS AND INITIALLY GRADUAL
COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION WITHIN CURRENT DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE.
ALL OF WHICH MAY YIELD A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A FLOODING
THREAT BEFORE COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AS A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CURRENT
DAYS 3 SPC CONVECTIVE AND WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOKS ARE
POSITIONED WELL.
SAID SURFACE HIGH DRIES OUT CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, COOLING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S, GENERALLY AROUND OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS. LARGE SCALE TAKES ON A LESS AMPLIFIED NW TO ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN, WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES TEND TO HOVER AROUND TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-15KT
RANGE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25KTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CDB
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