092
FXUS63 KEAX 090530
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY - TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS MOST
AT RISK ON MONDAY, BUT WITHIN REACH ON TUESDAY AS WELL.
- MONDAY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MCI: 77 IN 2021
STJ: 76 IN 2021
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON - OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A ZONAL POLAR JET IS SITUATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/ SOUTHERN
CANADA, WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL JET MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF A CLOSED
UPPER-LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN
IS ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB ANOTHER 5-10
DEGREES ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO PULL GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY. THE
CLOSED UPPER-LOW WILL BEGIN MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND THAT WILL HELP
MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD IN THE AREA, RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S, BUT THIS COULD BE TEMPERED
SOME BY INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. REGARDLESS, AMPLE
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BUILD DURING THE DAY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
NEAR OR EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. THIS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK INITIALLY BY
A STRONG EML. INCREASING MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH 35-45 KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
FORECAST. STRONGLY VEERED SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT
HELICITY VALUES FOR THIS EVENT, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES. BUT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE SHEAR,
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE BEFORE
STORMS CONGEAL. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS MAY BE TIED TO THE FRONT WITH
STORM MOTIONS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS SETS UP THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS AND INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. WITH FLOW ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY, IT PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD VERY SLOWLY. WHILE THIS WILL BE MODIFIED BY ANY COLD POOL
THAT DEVELOPS, IT SUGGEST THAT OVERALL, A SLOW SOUTHERLY PROGRESSION
TO CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL ALSO BE VERY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR WITH NAEFS PERCENTILES IN THE 99.5 RANGE AND 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE SETUP, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THIS EVENT AS WELL.
THAT FRONT FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
COOLER AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE
25-30 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WHICH ACTUALLY JUST DROPS US
BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE POLAR JET REMAINS WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES NEXT WEEKEND
WHEN A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND HELPS TO PUSH A
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF PERIOD. INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND
20KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AND SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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