948
FXUS63 KEAX 100430
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON - OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
- DRIER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MO
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORDS FOR THE KC AREA), DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S, AND STEEP
700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH MODEST TO
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING OVERHEAD, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THIS LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN AN
AROUND THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. LOOKING OVER VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS OVER THAT AREA, MANY OF THE
ANALOGS SHOW VERY LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME INHIBITION LEFT. GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
TIED TO THE FRONT WHERE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. AS STORMS EVOLVE AND GROW UPSCALE, THE
MAIN THREAT WILL TREND TO DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG
AND JUST HEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF
RAINFALL WILL RESIDE AND A SLIGHT TREND SOUTHWARD. IT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL KS (LEAVENWORTH TO MIAMI COUNTIES)
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO MACON DOWN PETTIS COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE KC METRO.
BEYOND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THAT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>75%) THROUGH THE FORECAST. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO BUILD NORTH INTO
TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD. FOR NOW, HAVE
JUST ADDED A TEMPO GROUP OF SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THE THICKER CLOUD COVER LOOKS MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS INCREASE LATE IN THE MORNING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION LOOK LOW ENOUGH THROUGH 00Z THAT I HAVE KEPT IT OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN EAST-CENTRAL KS AND WEST-CENTRAL MO AFTER 00Z
WED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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