347
FXUS63 KEAX 100528
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON - OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
- DRIER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MO
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORDS FOR THE KC AREA), DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S, AND STEEP
700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH MODEST TO
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING OVERHEAD, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THIS LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN AN
AROUND THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. LOOKING OVER VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS OVER THAT AREA, MANY OF THE
ANALOGS SHOW VERY LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME INHIBITION LEFT. GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
TIED TO THE FRONT WHERE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. AS STORMS EVOLVE AND GROW UPSCALE, THE
MAIN THREAT WILL TREND TO DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG
AND JUST HEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF
RAINFALL WILL RESIDE AND A SLIGHT TREND SOUTHWARD. IT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL KS (LEAVENWORTH TO MIAMI COUNTIES)
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO MACON DOWN PETTIS COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE KC METRO.
BEYOND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THAT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PRESENT ANOTHER DAY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE BIT DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW MINUTES OF IFR VISIBILITY AT THE SOME OF THE TERMINALS.
UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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