927
FXUS63 KEAX 100813
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..UPDATED FOR LOCAL INPUT ON SPC SWODY1
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON - OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
- DRIER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MO
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
LOCAL THOUGHTS ON SPC SWODY1 OUTLOOK:
THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE SWODY1 HAS NO NOTABLE DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SWODY2 ISSUANCES FOR ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY, THE 00Z CAMS AND NOW
THE INITIAL 06Z CAM GUIDANCE THAT IS COMING IN CONTINUES TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE THE H5
SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DIGGING MORE, SENDING
THE VORT MAXIMA FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING THE COLD
FRONT TO PROPAGATE AT FASTER SPEED BEHIND THE DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. BETWEEN 850-700MB, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER, INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE EML THAT WILL BE
PRESENT ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS SET EXPERIENCE STRONG
THETA-E TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MEANING OF THIS EML
DEVELOPMENT DOES TWO THINGS. 1.) STRENGTHENS THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CAP) FURTHER AND 2.) INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, WHICH INCREASES SURFACE BASED CAPE AND TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO A FAIRLY POTENT WARM
SECTOR FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. KINEMATICALLY THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
PRIMED TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0- 6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS 40-50 KT) CLOSE TO THE FRONT, 30-40KTS ACROSS THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR. AS THE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ENTER
THE AREA AS A STRONGER LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM, MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SET TO ELONGATE. WITH HOW STRONG
THE EXPECTED CINH IS, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY BETWEEN 20Z-00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE BROADSCALE
LIFT AND REGION OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THE 00Z CAMS AND A
FEW OF THE AVAILABLE 06Z CAMS DEVELOP NOTHING IN THE OPEN WARM-
SECTOR BECAUSE OF THIS, EVEN WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING UPWARD
OF 2500 J/KG PER 00Z HREF MEAN. THEREFORE, EXPECTING AN AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT
FAILURE OF DCI. SO WHAT IF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS A WAY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CAP? FROM EASTERN KS TO CENTRAL MO, THE ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A ROBUST MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH PLENTY OF CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
AND A NON-DETRIMENTAL MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE
FLOW TO FOSTER HAIL STONES OF 2 INCHES OR PERHAPS LARGER.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THETA-E
DEFICITS THROUGH THE CBL COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF
NEGATIVE BUOYANCY. AS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT, FOR THE BULK OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, WILL BE HARD TO ACHIEVE IF THE CAP IS
BROKEN. WHILE SRH VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE HODOGRAPH SHAPES ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF
CROSSWISE VORTICITY, RATHER THAN STREAMWISE, WHICH WOULD LIMIT A
STORMS ABILITY TO DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE EVEN WITH
DECENT SURFACE VORTICITY PRESENT. IN ORDER FOR THE VORTICITY TO
BECOME STREAMWISE, A STORM WOULD NEED TO TAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN
RELATIVE TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR. BUT ANY STORM MOVING
WITH THE MEAN WIND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INGEST WHAT IT NEEDS.
THE MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT IS GOING BE FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS, WHERE ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT AND REGION OF SURFACE TROUGHING (VERY STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS) COULD PROMOTE THE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS NEEDED FOR
BETTER STREAMWISE VORTICITY. THEREFORE, BETWEEN 20Z-00Z TODAY IF
THE CAP MANAGES TO BE BROKEN, LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS LIKELY
YOUR MAIN STORY. LCLS POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPWARD OF 1200M WOULD
ALSO HINDER TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
ATTENTION THAN TURNS AFTER 00Z, WHEN THE COLD FRONT INCREASES
CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI, AS WELL AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPING UP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK COUPLING, PLACING THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN A
SPOT FAVORED FOR LIFT, THOUGH UNSURE IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OR BE DISPLACED BEHIND IT. THE 00Z AND
06Z CAMS SHOW FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
03Z THIS EVENING. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE A WELL DEFINED QLCS, OTHER
CAMS, AT LEAST IN THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING MORE OF AN MCS. THE ONE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z CAMS HAS
BEEN THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH, WITH NOT
MUCH HAPPENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL, WIND GUSTS WITH STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD, REACHING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH. A FEW LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY KIND BOWING SEGMENT OR
REAR-INFLOW JET IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONGER CORES EARLY
ON CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A HAIL STONES
BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF-DOLLAR SIZE, BUT THIS HAIL THREAT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH UPSCALE GROWTH. GIVEN THE STRONG
BACKGROUND KINEMATICS, A BRIEF SPIN-UP ALONG A LINEAR SYSTEM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTOR SUGGESTED BY DETERMINISTIC CAMS IS NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE TO PERSISTENT MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO
WIND HAZARDS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY, THE COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH AT A FASTER RATE, AND THE 850-300MB
MEAN WIND VECTORS ARE NOT AS PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY
AS THEY PREVIOUSLY WERE. WHILE TRAINING STORMS RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT ARE STILL LIKELY, THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER
COLD POOL WITH THE SYSTEM MAY PREVENT THAT TRAINING FROM
OCCURRING OVER A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION. FASTER MOVING
FRONT IS GOOD NEWS FROM A HYDROLOGY PERSPECTIVE. THE 06Z CAMS
ARE COMING IN FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS, WHICH IS
NOW SOUTH OF THE KC METRO BY ABOUT 25-30 MILES. THE HRRR
SPECIFICALLY HAS A STRIPE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE 00Z HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN OUTPUT DOES HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF OVER
2 INCHES, BUT THIS WAS FURTHER NORTH BASED ON PREVIOUS CAM
OUTPUT OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE. THE MAIN FLOODING CONCERN MAY END UP BEING CONFINED
TO THE KC METRO DUE TO THE URBAN LANDSCAPE. RURAL COMMUNITIES
THAT HAVE BEEN IN DROUGHT MAY BE SPARED FLOODING HAZARDS IF THE
STORMS REMAIN AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF THE CAMS
HAVE SUGGESTED. GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF THE FRONT POSITION, AS
WELL AS THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS, HAVE NOT YET ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH. THE 12Z HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN FIELD MAY BE ABLE
TO GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS FALLS,
AND WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT TIME TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A FLOOD
WATCH ESPECIALLY SINCE THE FLOODING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OR, MAY OCCUR IF THERE IS IN BACKFILLING
CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
PROVIDES LIFT BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. EVEN IF FLASH FLOODING ENDS
UP NOT BEING AN ISSUE, STILL EXPECTING CREEKS AND STREAMS TO
RISE, ESPECIALLY IN IN THE KC METRO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S (WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORDS FOR THE KC AREA), DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 60S, AND STEEP
700MB TO 500MB LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE TO LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE VALUES PUSHING 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH MODEST TO
STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW STREAMING OVERHEAD, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE/VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THIS LOOKS MOST FAVORABLE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA, IN AN
AROUND THE ENHANCED RISK AREA. LOOKING OVER VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS OVER THAT AREA, MANY OF THE
ANALOGS SHOW VERY LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS
THERE IS STILL SOME INHIBITION LEFT. GIVEN THAT STORMS SHOULD BE
TIED TO THE FRONT WHERE THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME THE INHIBITION. AS STORMS EVOLVE AND GROW UPSCALE, THE
MAIN THREAT WILL TREND TO DAMAGING WINDS. THIS LOOKS MORE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST ALONG
AND JUST HEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN WITH A
FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE. THOUGH THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE WHERE THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF
RAINFALL WILL RESIDE AND A SLIGHT TREND SOUTHWARD. IT SEEMS MOST
LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE FROM EAST CENTRAL KS (LEAVENWORTH TO MIAMI COUNTIES)
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO MACON DOWN PETTIS COUNTIES. THIS INCLUDES
THE KC METRO.
BEYOND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY,
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THAT SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
ALSO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE
AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
STRONG LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE TOWARD THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE EVENING. STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING PRESENT ANOTHER DAY
OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE BIT DEPENDING
ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, AND PERIODS OF DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN
A FEW MINUTES OF IFR VISIBILITY AT THE SOME OF THE TERMINALS.
UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF ANY STORMS FORM DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...KRULL
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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