182
FXUS63 KEAX 101744
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON - OVERNIGHT.
- SPC SLIGHT AND ENHANCED RISKS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- WPC SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
- DRIER WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY/
SUNDAY AM, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN
MO
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENT THINKING (AND THE 1630Z SPC DAY-1 OUTLOOK) HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM THE EARLY-MORNING LOCAL DISCUSSION APPENDED
BELOW. WE WILL UPDATE THIS SECTION OF THE AFD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE 06Z ISSUANCE OF THE SWODY1 HAS NO NOTABLE DEVIATIONS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SWODY2 ISSUANCES FOR ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTICALLY, THE 00Z CAMS AND NOW
THE INITIAL 06Z CAM GUIDANCE THAT IS COMING IN CONTINUES TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS BECAUSE THE THE H5
SHORT-WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DIGGING MORE, SENDING
THE VORT MAXIMA FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS ALSO CAUSING THE COLD
FRONT TO PROPAGATE AT FASTER SPEED BEHIND THE DEEPENING SURFACE
CYCLONE. BETWEEN 850-700MB, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER, INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE EML THAT WILL BE
PRESENT ABOVE A BOUNDARY LAYER THAT IS SET EXPERIENCE STRONG
THETA-E TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MEANING OF THIS EML
DEVELOPMENT DOES TWO THINGS. 1.) STRENGTHENS THE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION (CAP) FURTHER AND 2.) INCREASES BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING, WHICH INCREASES SURFACE BASED CAPE AND TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, LEADING TO A FAIRLY POTENT WARM
SECTOR FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. KINEMATICALLY THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
PRIMED TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0- 6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS 40-50 KT) CLOSE TO THE FRONT, 30-40KTS ACROSS THE OPEN
WARM SECTOR. AS THE MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK ENTER
THE AREA AS A STRONGER LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM, MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SET TO ELONGATE. WITH HOW STRONG
THE EXPECTED CINH IS, CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
COME BY BETWEEN 20Z-00Z LATE THIS AFTERNOON, DESPITE BROADSCALE
LIFT AND REGION OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THE 00Z CAMS AND A
FEW OF THE AVAILABLE 06Z CAMS DEVELOP NOTHING IN THE OPEN WARM-
SECTOR BECAUSE OF THIS, EVEN WITH MUCAPE VALUES PUSHING UPWARD
OF 2500 J/KG PER 00Z HREF MEAN. THEREFORE, EXPECTING AN AGITATED
CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES, BUT
FAILURE OF DCI. SO WHAT IF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS A WAY TO PUSH
THROUGH THE CAP? FROM EASTERN KS TO CENTRAL MO, THE ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. THE
MID-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A ROBUST MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH PLENTY OF CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE,
AND A NON-DETRIMENTAL MAGNITUDE OF MID-LEVEL STORM-RELATIVE
FLOW TO FOSTER HAIL STONES OF 2 INCHES OR PERHAPS LARGER.
DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING, THETA-E
DEFICITS THROUGH THE CBL COULD LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS,
ESPECIALLY IN A STRONGER DOWNDRAFT WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF
NEGATIVE BUOYANCY. AS FOR THE TORNADO THREAT, FOR THE BULK OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, WILL BE HARD TO ACHIEVE IF THE CAP IS
BROKEN. WHILE SRH VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE HODOGRAPH SHAPES ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE OF
CROSSWISE VORTICITY, RATHER THAN STREAMWISE, WHICH WOULD LIMIT A
STORMS ABILITY TO DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE EVEN WITH
DECENT SURFACE VORTICITY PRESENT. IN ORDER FOR THE VORTICITY TO
BECOME STREAMWISE, A STORM WOULD NEED TO TAKE A HARD RIGHT TURN
RELATIVE TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR. BUT ANY STORM MOVING
WITH THE MEAN WIND WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INGEST WHAT IT NEEDS.
THE MORE FAVORABLE TORNADO ENVIRONMENT IS GOING BE FROM
NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND INTO ILLINOIS, WHERE ALONG THE TRIPLE
POINT AND REGION OF SURFACE TROUGHING (VERY STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS) COULD PROMOTE THE BACKING OF SURFACE WINDS NEEDED FOR
BETTER STREAMWISE VORTICITY. THEREFORE, BETWEEN 20Z-00Z TODAY IF
THE CAP MANAGES TO BE BROKEN, LARGE HAIL AND WIND IS LIKELY
YOUR MAIN STORY. LCLS POTENTIALLY PUSHING UPWARD OF 1200M WOULD
ALSO HINDER TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
ATTENTION THAN TURNS AFTER 00Z, WHEN THE COLD FRONT INCREASES
CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS TO CENTRAL MISSOURI, AS WELL AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPING UP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK COUPLING, PLACING THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN A
SPOT FAVORED FOR LIFT, THOUGH UNSURE IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OR BE DISPLACED BEHIND IT. THE 00Z AND
06Z CAMS SHOW FAIRLY RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH, ESPECIALLY BEYOND
03Z THIS EVENING. SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE A WELL DEFINED QLCS, OTHER
CAMS, AT LEAST IN THEIR SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING MORE OF AN MCS. THE ONE CHANGE WITH THE 06Z CAMS HAS
BEEN THE HEAVIER QPF AXIS BEING PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH, WITH NOT
MUCH HAPPENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE
POTENTIAL, WIND GUSTS WITH STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD, REACHING BETWEEN 60-70 MPH. A FEW LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF ANY KIND BOWING SEGMENT OR
REAR-INFLOW JET IS ABLE TO DEVELOP. A FEW STRONGER CORES EARLY
ON CELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY PRODUCE A HAIL STONES
BETWEEN QUARTER AND HALF-DOLLAR SIZE, BUT THIS HAIL THREAT WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH UPSCALE GROWTH. GIVEN THE STRONG
BACKGROUND KINEMATICS, A BRIEF SPIN-UP ALONG A LINEAR SYSTEM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE 0-3KM SHEAR
VECTOR SUGGESTED BY DETERMINISTIC CAMS IS NOT CURRENTLY
CONDUCIVE TO PERSISTENT MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO
WIND HAZARDS, HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMPARED TO THE MODEL RUNS YESTERDAY, THE COLD
FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH AT A FASTER RATE, AND THE 850-300MB
MEAN WIND VECTORS ARE NOT AS PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY
AS THEY PREVIOUSLY WERE. WHILE TRAINING STORMS RELATIVE TO THE
FRONT ARE STILL LIKELY, THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND STRONGER
COLD POOL WITH THE SYSTEM MAY PREVENT TRAINING FROM OCCURRING
OVER A SPECIFIC GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION. FASTER MOVING FRONT IS GOOD
NEWS FROM A HYDROLOGY PERSPECTIVE. THE 06Z CAMS ARE COMING IN
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS, WHICH IS NOW SOUTH OF
THE KC METRO BY ABOUT 25-30 MILES. THE HRRR SPECIFICALLY HAS A
STRIPE OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE 00Z HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED
MEAN OUTPUT DOES HAVE A FEW POCKETS OF OVER 2 INCHES, BUT THIS
WAS FURTHER NORTH BASED ON PREVIOUS CAM OUTPUT OF A COLD FRONT
THAT WAS FURTHER NORTH AND NOT AS PROGRESSIVE. THE MAIN FLOODING
CONCERN MAY END UP BEING CONFINED TO THE KC METRO DUE TO THE
URBAN LANDSCAPE. RURAL COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEEN IN DROUGHT MAY
BE SPARED FLOODING HAZARDS IF THE STORMS REMAIN AS PROGRESSIVE
AS THE LAST FEW CYCLES OF THE CAMS HAVE SUGGESTED. GIVEN THE
VARIABILITY OF THE FRONT POSITION, AS WELL AS THE HEAVIER QPF
AXIS, HAVE NOT YET ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH. THE 12Z HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN FIELD MAY BE ABLE TO GIVE US A BETTER
HANDLE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS FALLS, AND WILL GIVE THE
DAY SHIFT TIME TO ASSESS THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY
SINCE THE FLOODING MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OR,
MAY OCCUR IF THERE IS IN BACKFILLING CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IF ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROVIDES LIFT BEHIND THE
MAIN FRONT. EVEN IF FLASH FLOODING ENDS UP NOT BEING AN ISSUE,
STILL EXPECTING CREEKS AND STREAMS TO RISE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
KC METRO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THAT SYSTEM
DIVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL
GREATLY DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO
THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH STJ AROUND 22Z AND THROUGH THE KC METRO
TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING INITIALLY
WESTERLY AND FINALLY NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT MKC AND IXD BETWEEN 23Z AND 1Z, AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS ACCORDINGLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 7Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN END BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NNW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 12Z, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM...WFO EAX
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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