939
FXUS63 KEAX 101855
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI THROUGH
SUNSET.
-LARGE HAIL, GREATER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE, AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. TORNADO RISK GREATEST WITH THE
INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
-ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS AS MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THROUGH 1 PM, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE PUSHED WELL INTO
THE UPPER 70S F, WITH A FEW LOWER 80S F REPORTED SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST-NORTHWEST MISSOURI. THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS RATHER STALLED ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER. WITH
THE REGION WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THE LATEST ACARS SOUNDING
FROM KMCI REVEALS A SHARPENED INVERSION AROUND 850MB. AT THE
SURFACE, DEW POINTS HAVE EASILY REACHED THE LOWER 60S F AND SURFACE
BASED CAPE COMPUTATIONS PLACE A BROAD SWATH OF INSTABILITY BETWEEN
2500 TO 3000 J/KG FROM SOUTHEAST KS ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI. WITH
THE CAPPING INVERSION EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG AND THE LACK OF A
FOCUSED FORCING MECHANISM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING, BEGINNING AROUND 6 TO 7 PM, WITH THE PUSH OF THE COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER PROVIDING FOCUSED FORCING FOR
ASCENT, CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED FROM EAST CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER AND NORTHEAST INTO NE MO/SE IA. CAMS HAVE
HINTED AT THIS SCENARIO MUCH OF THE MORNING AND THIS REMAINS TRUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE ISOLATED, SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES, TAPPING INTO THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS WOULD MEAN ALL MODES OF
SEVERE ARE POSSIBLE, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THE
GOOD NEWS, GIVEN THE MEAN WIND WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT, STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CLUSTER QUICKLY, THROUGH 8 TO 9 PM,
FORMING INTO A MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE AS STORMS MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST
WITH THE ADVANCING FRONT. AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BECOME THE MORE WIDESPREAD
HAZARD CONCERN OVERNIGHT. THE RISK FOR A SPIN UP TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, BUT ANY RISK WOULD BE ISOLATED. STRONG THE SEVERE STORMS
WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH 2 TO 3 AM.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE EASTWARD
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A BROAD
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DEVELOP WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LLJ,
RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY EXIST WITHIN THE ACTIVITY, POTENTIALLY INCREASING
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLED NEAR
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE
NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THAT
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE MID AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THIS WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO SPILL INTO THE AREA. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30
KNOTS AT THE TERMINALS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH STJ AROUND 22Z AND THROUGH THE KC METRO
TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS TURNING INITIALLY
WESTERLY AND FINALLY NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT MKC AND IXD BETWEEN 23Z AND 1Z, AND HAVE
INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS ACCORDINGLY. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 7Z WEDNESDAY, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY COME TO AN END BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING. NNW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 12Z, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 22 TO 25 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURTZ
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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