111
FXUS63 KEAX 110828
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
328 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THIS MORNING
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY
- NEXT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM SUNDAY
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI
EARLY THIS MORNING, FORCING THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS STILL AN H5 SHORT-WAVE DROPPING A MID-
LEVEL VORT MAX INTO IOWA AND ANOTHER MID-LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING
THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA THAT WILL PROVIDE A FEW MORE HOURS OF H5
HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE MORNING. THERE IS A SECOND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT SHOULD MISS THE AREA
BUT WILL SLOW THE RATE OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. FURTHER, THE NORTHERN H5 SHORT-WAVE WILL PUSH SECONDARY 850-
700MB COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE INSTABILITY IS GONE, LIMITING THUNDER POTENTIAL WITH
THESE SHOWER AND THEREFORE NO SEVERE THREAT. STRONG JET SHOULD KEEP
ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, AND
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING ANY RAIN RATES THAT COULD PRESENT FLOODING.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR A FEW OF THE FAST RESPONDING CREEKS/STREAMS
IN THE IMMEDIATE KC METRO THROUGH THIS MORNING. SURFACE PRESSURE
RISES WILL START BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, PROVIDING
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO END ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, OR PUSH IT EASTWARD
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES BEHIND THE SECONDARY 850-700MB COLD
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOURS OF
WARMING, BUMPING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS
ANOTHER H5 TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA, AND ANOTHER AREA OF
STRONG H5 CVA OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES GENERATES A STRONGER CYCLONE
INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS CREATES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE NOSE OF
WAA MAY NOT QUITE REACH OUR AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S, DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE. STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE MIXING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD GENERATE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH. THIS MAY
BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RIGHT
NOW THE FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AT RED FLAG CRITERIA, BUT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS, CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE PRIMED
FOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES. FOR NOW, HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY
HEADLINE PRODUCTS, BUT A FIRE WEATHER RELATED HEADLINE MAY
POTENTIALLY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY IN FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND
FAR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
FRIDAY, THE STRONG JET STREAK AND CVA RESULTING IN A DEEPENING H5
TROUGH AND STRONG CYCLONE THAT MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WHILE CYCLONE STAYS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, THIS WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 50S ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE
CONTENT CURRENTLY PROGGED WITH THIS SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
THEREFORE THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER STRONG VORT MAXIMA HELPS TO PROMOTE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE CYCLONE THAT WILL TURN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSH OF WAA
WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND PERHAPS LOWER 70S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD INCREASE AT SOME POINT
SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY INCREASING THE CLOUD COVER. THE MAIN CYCLONE
THEN MOVES EASTWARD AS THE AREA OF ENHANCED H5 FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. MOST OF THE EVENT WILL BE RAINFALL WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM ENOUGH. IF THERE IS ANY MOISTURE THAT LINGERS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY, THERE ARE SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT HINT AT A RAIN-SNOW MIX. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS
OF ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPE ARE VERY MINIMAL, AND IF WE REALIZE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S OR EVEN 70S ON SATURDAY, WOULD BE VERY QUICK
TO MELT. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION TO START
OF THE NEXT WORK WEEKS, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER
SIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT.
THUNDER SHOULD END IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CEILINGS MAY DIP
DOWN INTO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. WIND SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRULL
LONG TERM...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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