853
FXUS63 KEAX 170005
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
705 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING SOME LIGHT SNOW, POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- FROM WINTER TO SUMMER IN A FEW DAYS. HIGHS FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THIS WEEK CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. RECORD HIGHS LIKELY
FRIDAY, POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE TEENS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN MO. LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AS THE REGION
TRANSITIONS FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AN AREA OF DEEP
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM ROUGHLY 280K
THROUGH AT LEAST 305K. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BUILDING WESTERN RIDGE. THIS DEEP ASCENT WILL RESULT IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEASTERN MO.
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING IN THIS AREA, LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FOR MOST
LOCATIONS BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A DUSTING IN NORTHEASTERN MO, AROUND
THE KIRKSVILLE AREA. OTHERWISE, THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL START THE
WARMING TREND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WITH THE BUILDING WESTERN UPPER-RIDGE BECOMING OUR PRIMARY
INFLUENCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM DRAMATICALLY FOR
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS
VALUES WILL HELP HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY. A 30+ DECAMETER INCREASE IN THE 1000-850MB THICKNESS
THURSDAY, WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80
DEGREES. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ON FRIDAY, AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH, WILL HELP TEMPERATURES SURGE EVEN MORE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S LIKELY. THE RECORD FOR BOTH MCI AND STJ
IS 82 DEGREES, SET IN 1953 AND 1934, RESPECTIVELY. THESE ARE
LIKELY BE BROKEN BY SEVERAL DEGREES, IF THE CURRENT FORECAST
VERIFIES. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE
OF THIS OCCURRING. FOR SATURDAY, VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. BUT RECORDS ARE 91 FOR MCI AND 88 FOR STJ, FROM 1907
AND 1916, RESPECTIVELY. THESE ARE WITHIN REACH, THOUGH OUR
FORECAST HAS HIGHS ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN THE RECORDS.
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW ABOUT A ONE IN THREE CHANCE OF
RECORD HIGHS FALLING SATURDAY. UNLIKELY BUT STILL VERY POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS WITH WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 22 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD RELAX
BELOW 10 KNOTS BY AROUND 1Z TO 2Z TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TURN SSE BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY, BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING A BIT BY MID TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ARRIVING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...CDB
AVIATION...BMW
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