265
FXUS63 KEAX 170549
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW, BUT MAY BRIEFLY
TRANSITION TO LIGHT RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AT THE END OF THE EVENT.
* AFTER A STRONG COOL DOWN WITH RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES, WE WILL SEE
IMPRESSIVE WARMING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
ON FRIDAY. ALONG WITH THE SIGNIFICANT WARMING, INCREASING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS BY LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS LEADING TO MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING. VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS IN EAST TEXAS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW RETURN IN RECOVERY DEW
POINTS. DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK RECOVERY AFTER A
FRIGID START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING (LOWS GENERALLY 15 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND NOT FAR FROM RECORD TERRITORY);
HOWEVER, INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL SLOW WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM THE 290K-305K SURFACE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING CLOUDS AND AS DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. SUB CLOUD LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY, WHICH
WILL CERTAINLY LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOW, BUT AS LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES, COULD SEE PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY
TRANSITION TO RAIN OR POSSIBLY A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN IF COLD
DENSE AIR NEAR THE SURFACE LINGERS IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI. WITH
THAT SAID, THE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL OPPOSE SATURATION
FROM ALOFT (EVAPORATIVE COOLING). BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN
APPEAR TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI, GENERALLY NORTH OF I-70, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION RESIDING CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI/IOWA
BORDER.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS LIFT
WEAKENS AND WAVE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST. INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, BUT RECORDS
ARE MUCH WARMER. WITH MILD TEMPERATURES, AND THE FLOW FROM THE
WEST LIMITING GULF MOISTURE, COULD SEE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WINDS. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY MAY BRING COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT LIMITED AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST. WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING MAINLY EAST OF THE
TERMINALS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
REMAIN VFR.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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