159
FXUS63 KEAX 171854
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
154 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING, ENDING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS
OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, HIGHS IN THE 80S, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
STOUT RIDGING CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
RIDING ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS, A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE HAS CONTINUED
TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, MODEST BROAD SCALE ASCENT WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS SUPPORTED LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THIS IS BEST EVIDENT ON THE 305 AND 310K
ISENTROPIC LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MODEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE OF CLOUD ICE INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AS THIS
FEATURE LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. PROFILES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM TO MIDNIGHT SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT SNOW, BUT
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH 850MB WARMING THE LOW LEVELS, IT'S
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT WINDOW AROUND 11 PM TO 1 AM OF LIGHT RAIN OR
POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN IF TEMPS GET JUST BELOW FREEZING AS THE
PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST OF THE REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY. NEW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH AND ANY FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND A
GLAZE, LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE STEADILY EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE WESTERN RIDGE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND STALL OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH
SOME APPROACHING THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS WILL EASILY REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY, WITH 80S EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KANSAS CITY'S RECORD HIGH FOR FRIDAY, 3/20, IS 82 (1953), WHICH
COULD BE AT RISK OF BREAKING. SATURDAY'S (3/21) RECORD HIGH OF 91
(1907) WOULD BE HARD TO BEAT. AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY,
HIGHS IN THE 50S. WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE
RATHER TAME DURING THIS WARM UP PERIOD, KEEPING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TO A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE,
RAISING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURTZ
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KURTZ
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