637
FXUS63 KEAX 180447
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES, EVEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, EXITS
EASTWARD TONIGHT/VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- PRIMARILY N/NE MISSOURI
* WARMING TEMPERATURES LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
THE DOMINANT DRIVER OF THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
VERY STOUT (ESPECIALLY FOR TIME OF THE YEAR) RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
SW CONUS. WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THIS
PLACES THE IMMEDIATE AREA STOUTLY UNDERNEATH NW FLOW ALOFT. A
COMBINATION OF A BROAD SURFACE/NEAR-SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SE US, A
WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE NW FLOW, AND AN ACCOMPANYING
PLUME OF MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE HAS RESULTED IN
SUFFICIENT AND DEEP ENOUGH LIFT (ISENTROPIC) TO YIELD PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW. INITIALLY, LIFT WAS SEEN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE COLUMN,
RESULTING IN BROADER LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BUT BY THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING, THE LOW LEVEL SUPPORT HAD BEGUN TO PUSH EASTWARD, DRYING
OUT THE LOWEST LEVELS. WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINING IN THE MID
LEVELS, SOME PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALBEIT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
RADAR DEPICTIONS ALONE WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REACHING THE GROUND, ARE CURRENTLY OVERDONE WITH THE DRIER LOW
LEVELS. THIS ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT BEFORE
THAT IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE SOME LIGHT ICING WITH A STOUT WARM NOSE
IN PLACE ABOVE NEAR-FREEZING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES OVER AREAS NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CURRENT 7-DAY FORECAST IS DOMINATED BY THE
INFLUENCE OF A >590DM 500MB HIGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/MEXICAN BORDER. GRADUALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO AS MUCH AS
25 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BASICALLY
EXPECT THURSDAY HIGHS 25-30+ DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THEN ANOTHER
HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN HIGHS
PEAK. BASICALLY 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY, UPPER 60S TO 70S
THURSDAY, UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FRIDAY, AND 80S SATURDAY. WHILE
HIGHS PEAK ON SATURDAY, RECORDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO FALL ON
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE "LOW HANGING FRUIT" WITHIN THE CLIMATE
RECORD. DURING THIS TIME FRAME, LITTLE TO SPEAK OF WITH REGARDS
TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE STOUT RIDGE DEFLECTS ANY NOTABLE
SHORTWAVE OPPORTUNITIES NORTHWARD. BY SUNDAY RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN, AIDED BY STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY, DROPPING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST BRIEFLY BACK TOWARDS
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT TUE MAR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY
BECOMING SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BT
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