719
FXUS63 KEAX 190411
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1111 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM UP REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
- SLIGHTLY COOLER START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THAT WILL PROVIDE
SEVERAL DAYS OF NOTABLE DAVA ACROSS THE REGION. THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE HAS KEPT CONDITIONS CLEAR TODAY, AND WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT.
A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH AN
850MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. STRONG WAA ALONG WITH MULTIPLE AFTERNOONS OF STRONG BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK. FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MIXING MAY RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING SLIGHTLY BELOW 30 PERCENT, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY FOR
FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KTS.
A FEW SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND AND THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL MAKE FLOW MORE
ZONAL, BUT A A STRONG 582DAM HIGH WILL STILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME CLOUD COVER
AND WILL SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES, EVENTUALLY ALLOWING A THERMAL
BOUNDARY TO PASS THROUGH. THERE IS NOT CURRENTLY A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THOUGH, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING THURSDAY. WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...BT
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