680
FXUS63 KEAX 200430
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM THROUGH SATURDAY
- LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS
- MOST MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT 7 DAY FORECAST
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
STRONG DAVA HAS REINFORCED A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE AREA
THAT HAS SKIES CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING HELPING TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STORY THROUGH
SATURDAY, AS A WELL AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD,
WITH 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EASTWARD. THE NEXT FEW
AFTERNOONS WILL FEATURE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WITH
AFTERNOON MIXING, AND IN FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
KANSAS. HOWEVER, NO NOTABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT WIND GUSTS IN OUR AREA. THE
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THEREFORE,
HAVE NOT ISSUED ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR OUR COUNTIES WITH
THIS FORECAST UPDATE. TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE
FAIRLY LOCKED INTO HIGHS IN THE 80S.
SUNDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE WILL SLIGHTLY DEAMPLIFY THE STRONG
RIDGE AND DEVELOP A SURFACE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. EVENTUALLY THIS
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AT SOME POINT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT AND CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPMENT, OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE IS WEAK, RESULTING IN A DRY
FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY
ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM. AFTER THIS
SHORT-WAVE MOVES THROUGH, MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS RE-AMPLIFIES WITH
SOME DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICTING A 590DAM HIGH, WHICH
WILL SWITCH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY BACK TO A STRONG WAA
REGIME. OVER THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA, MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE
MORE UNSETTLED, AND IT WILL BE BATTLE OF HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THAT CAN
PROPAGATE WITH THE STRONG H5 RIDGE. EVEN IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT
BRING THE FORCING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, KEEP THE MOISTURE CONTENT LOW
RESULTING IN VERY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
QUIET, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES.
BKN/OVC200 SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF
THE S/SW OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING CW THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
PREVAILING OUT OF THE NNW/N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CURTIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page