759
FXUS63 KEAX 201725
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY TODAY, POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN
MO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST, BUT
EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WILL VERY
LIKELY (~80%) LEAD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT BOTH
MCI AND STJ, WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE (~30-40%) ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALSO INCREDIBLY DRY, WITH
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH SEVERAL KM OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WHILE, FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD,
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SURFACE RH VALUES POTENTIALLY IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN KS AND WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN MO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN/ BROADEN OUT LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, AND THAT WILL HELP TO ALLOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HELP PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10+ DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY PUSHING 90 DEGREES.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT, OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE MID-WEEK CHANCE, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY, WITH
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK, CHANCES ARE BETTER, WITH MORE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION. BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
25%. SO OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS VERY LIKELY TO BE DRY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL START TO PICKUP AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-
002-011-012-020.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
102-103.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...KRULL
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