277
FXUS63 KEAX 210425
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1125 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
- ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLE RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK
FXUS63 KEAX 210422
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1122 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING NE KANSAS AND NW MISSOURI SATURDAY
- COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
- ANOTHER WARM UP NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLE RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
H5 594DAM HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND HAS
ALLOWED A STRONG 850MB THERMAL RIDGE TO PUSH INTO THE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS ENHANCED FLOW
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE PRIMARILY OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES, WHICH IS PRODUCING A SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MOST OF THIS THOUGH WILL NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA
THAT GREATLY. THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE STRONG DAVA, BUT THIS IS STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
AND SO IS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE ANTICYCLONE. BUT WITH THE FORCING
STAYING AWAY FROM THE AREA, SKIES SHOULD STILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR.
SATURDAY, A FEW SHOTS OF VORTICITY MOVING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE H5 594DAM HIGH
SOUTHWARD A BIT, AS WELL AS DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE AND PROMOTING BRISK
MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE
850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD, AND DCVA INTO
THE FRONT RANGE WILL PROMOTE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. THIS SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LEADING TO
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
WINDS TOWARD THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE
PLACED A FEW COUNTIES IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE. FUELS
ARE MORE MOIST FROM THE KC METRO EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SUNDAY, MORE REINFORCING SHOTS OF MODERATE DCVA WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH WILL ALLOW A FULL SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS TO TAKE PLACE, MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH STRONGER
COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL IT. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE RETURN, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE STRONG LIFT THAT WILL BE
PRESENT. INCREASING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. AS FOR SUNDAY TEMPERATURES, MOST SOLUTIONS KEEP THE COLD
FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, WHICH MEANS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REACH THE 70S BEFORE DROPPING WITH FROPA.
PERHAPS FAR NORTHWEST ZONES MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM UP IF THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER. ENSEMBLE INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD IS
LARGER FOR SUNDAY, AS THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS THAT PUSH THE FRONT
THROUGH BEFORE PEAK HEATING. EXPECTING INCREASING WIND GUSTS ON
SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE DEEPENS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.
MONDAY, COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, AND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES THOUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO REBOUND, THE H5 HIGH WILL TRY TO MOVE NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHICH WOULD PREVENT ANY NOTABLE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
FRO DIGGING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH. STRONGER SURFACE ANTICYCLONE SPANNING
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS CLEAR, AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR INSOLATION THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY REACHING THE 70S AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 80S
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, AS A FEW SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT OF REDUCE THE MAGNITUDE OF
WAA. THE NEXT MENTIONABLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD WITH CLR SKIES FCST.
WINDS WILL BE LGT AND VRB THRU 15Z-16Z WHEN THEY WILL INCR OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS...A FEW GUSTS TO 20KTS WILL BE
POSS BTN 19Z-23Z. AFT 23Z-00Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
AND REMAIN AROUND 10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-
002-011-012-020.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
102-103.
SHORT TERM...KRULL
LONG TERM...KRULL
AVIATION...73
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-
002-011-012-020.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-
102-103.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...73
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