791
FXUS63 KEAX 211050
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
550 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. IF THE RECORD IS
BROKEN, IT WOULD BE THE WARMEST MARCH DAY EVER RECORDED FOR
KANSAS CITY, DATING BACK TO 1888.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHWESTERN MO.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE VERY STRONG UPPER-RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
CONTINUES TO BE OUR PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR THE NEAR-TERM. IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS, THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE IS CENTERED
ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT IS EXPANSIVE INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES ARE GREATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY, RANGING FROM ABOUT 141 DAM TO NEARLY 144 DAM. GIVEN
THAT, THINK WE'LL ADD SEVERAL DEGREES TO YESTERDAY'S HIGHS.
WITH THAT IN MIND, WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD LOW TO POSSIBLY MID
90S ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. CURRENTLY FORECASTING 93
FOR MCI, WHICH WOULD BE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED FOR
MARCH FOR KANSAS CITY DATING BACK TO 1888. THIS IS REALLY
EXCEPTIONAL HEAT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH THE HEAT COMES A VERY DRY AIR MASS. HUMIDITY VALUES COULD
EASILY DROP AS LOW AS 15% ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN
MO. THIS IS EXTREMELY DRY FOR THIS AREA AND WHILE WINDS WON'T BE TOO
STRONG, WE SHOULD SEE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO. GIVEN THIS, CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING
EASTWARD TO ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FOR NORTHWESTERN MO.
SUNDAY, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FLANKS OF THE BROADENING UPPER RIDGE. THIS HELPS TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR A QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS A RESULT,
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES HAS
TRENDED LOWER. IT WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 (IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES) TO AS MUCH AS
30 (IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES) DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY. SURFACE WINDS
ALSO INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET
30-35 MPH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED.
BUT TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP FOR THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER-RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF AND SPREADS EASTWARD. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
IT'S NOT UNTIL FRIDAY THAT ANY REASONABLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVES BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF FRONT STRADDLING THE FORECAST AREA. BUT EVEN THIS
CHANCE IS FAIRLY LOW WITH POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 30% ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY LATER THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AT SUNSET BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN
FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-020-021-028.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR KSZ025-102-103.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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