903
FXUS63 KEAX 220438
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10PM SATURDAY NIGHT
- COOLER, GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THERE IS STILL A 588DAM H5 HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
BUT THE OVERALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS DE-AMPLIFIED WITH A FEW
SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. H5 FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS IS NOW MORE ZONAL. THE DAVA REGIME
HAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHED TODAY BUT SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLEAR AS THE
NEAREST FORCING IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. CLEAR SKIES ALLOWED
FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION AND STARTED ROBUST MIXING THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED BELOW 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, AND BELOW 20 PERCENT IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ZONES.
WINDS IN NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS HAVE BEEN AROUND 20
MPH SO FAR, BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 25
MPH THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THEREFORE NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING, THIS
WILL STILL BE IN PLACE UNTIL 10PM THIS EVENING. AREAS EAST OF THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING WILL SEE LOWER RHS THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
BUT WIND GUSTS FURTHER EAST SHOULD BE CAPPED AT AROUND 20 MPH.
HEADING INTO THE EVENING, A FEW ENHANCED AREAS OF DCVA OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS IN THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN SAND HILLS REGION OF NEBRASKA. ANOTHER
AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES MAY SEE DECREASING SURFACE
TRENDS HEADING INTO THE EVENING, AS WELL AS A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS PAST SUNSET.
THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TRAILING IT. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 30 MPH FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY, WITH SEVERAL POCKETS OF
GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE
AS WELL, WITH UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING IN, BUT A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE ON SUNDAY. OVERALL PROPAGATION SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT REMAINS FASTER COMPARED TO MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM
DAYS PRIOR. THERE IS STILL DECENT INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD AMONGST
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE SUITES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, BUT WILL
TREND THE OFFICIAL HIGHS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILES. THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
FORECAST AREA ZONES PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. AREAS BETWEEN HWY. 36 AND
I-70 MAY SEE THE BOUNDARY PASS THROUGH DURING PEAK ISOLATION HOURS.
SOUTH OF HWY. 50 MAY NOT SEE THE BOUNDARY PASS UNTIL AFTER MUCH OF
THE PEAK HEATING, WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF HWY. 50 TO
HIT THE UPPER 70S OR EVEN LOWER 80S. CLOUD COVER THICKNESS MAY ALSO
PLAY A ROLE IN THIS. THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE OZARKS REGION BY LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH NOTABLE CAA WILL
KEEP WINDS BREEZY POST FROPA INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE THE H5 HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ATTEMPTING
TO PUSH A RIDGE AXIS BACK NORTHWARD WHILE AMPLIFYING, PROVIDING DAVA
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND DEVELOPING A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FLOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHERLY DURING THIS TIME, KEEPING MONDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WILL PUSH AN
850MB THERMAL RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS, INTRODUCING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WAA. A FEW VORT MAXIMA ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS LOOKS TO
INHIBIT RAPID H5 HEIGHT RAISES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
TUESDAY, AND GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN REMAINS QUESTIONABLE AS WE HEAD
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR OUR REGION. WE MAY SEE SOME UPPER-
LEVEL CLOUD COVER IF THERE IS MINIMAL MODIFICATION TO PACIFIC
MOISTURE (PRIMARILY ABOVE 500MB). SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP OUR LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DUE SOUTH, ALLOWING TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF. OTHER SOLUTIONS
EVOLVE THE H5 PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DIFFERENTLY THAT
PRESENT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE STARTING TO
HINT AT SLIGHTLY INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT IT MAY HAVE TO
OVERCOME A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THE NBM HAS KEPT PROBABILITIES UNDER
15 PERCENT, SO FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. PERSISTENT WAA CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY, BUT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE SHOWING
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR RAINFALL AS A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-
WAVE PROMOTE NOTABLE H5 HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS THAT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT WITH PRECEDING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. THIS WILL THEN LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS FCST
THRU THE PD. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
BTN 10-15KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25KTS POSS BTN THRU 10Z.
THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOV THRU THE TAF SITES BTN 11Z-13Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH BTN 7-12KTS. WINDS WILL FURTHER
INCR OUT OF THE NORTH TO AFT 15Z-17Z TO 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS
30-35KTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFT 23Z-01Z REMAINING OUT
OF THE NORTH AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS .
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...73
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