956
FXUS63 KEAX 221110
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE THIS WEEK, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING LATE THURSDAY - FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SOME AND BROADENED
OUT AS FASTER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND SEVERAL WAVES SUPPRESS IT. ONE OF
THOSE WAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND HELP TO
PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
IOWA. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE 50S AND 60S. AS
THAT FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH. ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH MODELS SHOWING 40-50
MICROBAR/KM. THIS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 25-30 MPH
RANGE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE TOP OF MIXED-LAYER AROUND
35KTS OVER FAR EASTERN KS AND MO. SO WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT TIMES
LOOK POSSIBLE. OVERALL, IT LOOKS WINDY, BUT IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE'LL
NOT SEE WINDS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THIS WITH LOW
OR EVEN NO PROBABILITY FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR STRONGER AND
GUSTS 45 MPH OR STRONGER.
WHILE WE WON'T BE AS DRY AS YESTERDAY, WHEN HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMED
OUT IN THE 15-20% RANGE, WE SHOULD STILL SEE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30-40% RANGE. WITH WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES THEN TREND WARMER THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
RIDGING REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S AS A RESULT. 90 DEGREE READINGS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THURSDAY EITHER AS THERE MAY BE SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THAT FRONT WILL
BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS COOLER
AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE
WILL BE A WIND DIRECTION SWITCH AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WITH
A FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. TMCI RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A GRAVITY WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
KSTJ AND KMCI. 5-MINUTE OBSERVATIONS FROM STJ SHOW SOME
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION WITH THIS FEATURE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AND BACK TO SOUTH AGAIN. CAN'T RULE OUT THAT THIS HAPPENS
IN THE KC TERMINALS BEFORE THE WINDS PREVAIL FROM THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS OF
25KTS TO AS MUCH AS 35KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THEN FINALLY
DIMINISH AROUND 04Z-06Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CDB
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