457
FXUS63 KEAX 222311
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
611 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK
- RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST THIS AREA
AFTERNOON. THE MOST NOTABLE FEATURE HAS BEEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH FOR MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON.
MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL, WITH STRONGEST FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. SURFACE CYCLONE CENTER AS OF 20Z IS
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PROMOTING A DAVA REGIME
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS DEVELOPING
A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROGGED TO EXPAND MUCH OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. SURFACE PRESSURE RISES MAY EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EVEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED DIMINISH UNTIL OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DROP WITH CONTINUED CAA. PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE CAA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY, KEEPING
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH SOME 60S MAY OCCUR
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. A FEW MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT LIGHT RAIN
OR SPRINKLE ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE A
WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY
THOUGH, LIMITING ANY SUBSTANTIAL MEASUREMENTS IF ANY RAIN IS SEEN AT
ALL.
TUESDAY, H5 HIGH STRENGTHENS AGAIN ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
AGAIN, WHILE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND BEINGS TO MOVE
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO FORCE THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER
VORTICITY IN THE MID-LEVELS THAT MAY GENERATE SOME WEAK LIFT,
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. GEFS AND OTHER ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
SHOWING INCREASED, THOUGH STILL FAIRLY LOW, PROBABILITIES FOR SOME
TYPE OF LIGHT OR SPRINKLE ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY, AGAIN MAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
ZONES, THOUGH QPF WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS DRY DUE TO A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WAA RAMPS UP AS A 590DAM HIGH SETS UP OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND SHIFTS THE 850MB THERMAL AXIS EASTWARD.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR A PUSH SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, A STRONGER H5 SHORT-WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGING REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ON LATE THURSDAY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY, ALSO BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EVENING, DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE
COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM-SECTOR AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT RIGHT NOW MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CAPS THE WARM-
SECTOR, SO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF THERE IS ANY APPRECIABLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THEN NEXT WEEKEND, MODEL
CONSENSUS IF WEAK WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR EAST THE CYCLONE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA, AS WELL AS ANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH EAST, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING AND LINGERING MOISTURE FOR MORE LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER IF THE RIDGE AXIS IS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER
EASTWARD AND PROVIDE A STRONG DAVA REGIME, THE WEEKEND COULD AND
WARMER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR CONDS ARE FCST THRU THE PD WITH FEW-BKN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THRU 16Z-18Z WHEN BKN-OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOV INTO THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH BTN
15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25-30KTS THRU 03Z-04Z AT MCI AND STJ AND
TIL 07Z AT IXD AND MKC. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 7-12KTS AND
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THRU 12Z-13Z WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NE
BTN 5-10KTS BEFORE BECMG E AROUND 10KTS AFT 17Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...73
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